AI nearly.trade

ai-8.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (jake888.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1632 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -28.60 NEAR · insiders' net result: +7.05 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 38% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 05:58:23 UTC · block 218021481 · history: launch only
Transaction	8E3QZPsQi5VZZ…ZzUfi
Creator	maxgains.near explorer
Pool	ai-8.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	25.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-10 02:26 UTC
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	25	44	50	57	68
Buyers spent	542.73 NEAR	1,002.97 NEAR	1,560.15 NEAR	1,626.09 NEAR	1,729.72 NEAR
Buyers net result	+268.33 NEAR	+434.85 NEAR	+460.54 NEAR	+68.88 NEAR	-28.60 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+32.95 NEAR	+44.70 NEAR	+47.72 NEAR	+20.77 NEAR	+7.05 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.25x	3.58x	3.58x	3.58x	3.58x
Holders	26	41	42	35	17
Top 10 holders' share	82.1%	65.8%	70.3%	77.1%	99.3%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.3% · holds	2.3% · holds	2.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	24.3% · 18 of 18 hold	19.2% · 18 of 18 hold	5.2% · 9 of 18 hold
Other early buyers	8.4% · 7 of 7 hold	14.7% · 11 of 12 hold	11% · 7 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	32.8% · 25 wallets	33.9% · 30 wallets	16.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	64.9%	63.8%	81.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	82.1%	65.8%	77.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	89.9% · 2 merged	73.2% · 2 merged	80.8% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	8 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	+11.44 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+3.65 NEAR	pair bought within 1.2 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	10 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+13.81 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 1.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54	11 s · transaction	0.01 NEAR	not sold	+0.0066 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 45 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	neverekt.near	28 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	3.7 min after buying · transaction	+3.24 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 18.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.6 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
6	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	31 s · transaction	0.99 NEAR	not sold	+0.64 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 22.7 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7	47dd6e35850af27…57fd4	34 s · transaction	35.64 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	+46.26 NEAR	pair bought within 2.9 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	39 s · transaction	79.18 NEAR	11.7 min after buying · transaction	+33.48 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 14.9 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
9	e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7	43 s · transaction	55.00 NEAR	11.7 min after buying · transaction	+22.22 NEAR	pair bought within 28.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.2 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	5ef2af180986e30…a04a5	51 s · transaction	74.25 NEAR	39.2 min after buying · transaction	+38.86 NEAR	pair bought within 12.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	alola.near	54 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	6.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.85 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 14.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.7 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.3 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
12	b8185e452876272…dff87	62 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.24 NEAR	pair bought within 8.5 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.7 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13	irene.user.intear.near	64 s · transaction	18.24 NEAR	36.5 min after buying · transaction	+10.74 NEAR	pair bought within 10.4 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	579b7294974b54d…30203	72 s · transaction	19.00 NEAR	17.5 min after buying · transaction	+6.42 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 18.2 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.5 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
15	c04e67f0a60bb23…48c62	88 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	11.0 min after buying · transaction	+2.39 NEAR	pair bought within 16.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.7 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	tookur.near	92 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	12.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.49 NEAR	none found
17	e9826429e935604…ec819	92 s · transaction	167.31 NEAR	11.1 min after buying · transaction	+11.57 NEAR	pair bought within 20.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.8 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	badriansyahirwa….near	106 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	39.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 52.3 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.9 s of lambadaa.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.9 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	seanybeagle.near	117 s · transaction	49.00 NEAR	12.2 min after buying · transaction	+10.73 NEAR	none found
20	lambadaa.near	2.1 min · transaction	22.90 NEAR	15.7 min after buying · transaction	+8.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 57.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.9 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of maxgains.near

None known.