AIAYN nearly.trade

aiayn.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (f1dc059f314d0032263b3a3eb08391568e2dfd8840631394dd967781360f34df) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (152 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 27 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 103.7% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: sd8f79sda8f78saf789sa.near (recipient).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 19:52:22 UTC, 1434.8 min after the launch: 8SzX9HznDaZ1w…t7ZvB.
  • Received tokens from the dev: sd8f79sda8f78saf789sa.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: +43.95 NEAR · insiders' net result: +60.11 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 27% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-27 19:57:34 UTC · block 217531491 · history: launch only
Transaction6GNmNuWqj8x7H…YpKwd
Creatorattentionisallyouneednearly.near explorer
Poolaiayn.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy28.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-28 12:14 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-28 12:14 UTC
Price now1.27x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.16x the peak
Outside buyers in profit46 of 138 · 33.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0.6% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group7.9% · 4 of 20 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)338198109126
Buyers spent1,070.24 NEAR2,475.77 NEAR3,286.91 NEAR3,632.22 NEAR4,287.18 NEAR
Buyers net result+631.19 NEAR+3,174.39 NEAR+2,224.82 NEAR+2,084.68 NEAR+43.95 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11222
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%103.7%
Insiders' net result+62.95 NEAR+187.46 NEAR+147.69 NEAR+141.85 NEAR+60.11 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer3.23x7.54x7.90x7.90x7.90x
Holders3278706936
Top 10 holders' share56.9%42.1%45.5%43.7%70.8%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.6% · holds 2.6% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — 2.7% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 27.9% · 17 of 20 hold 23.9% · 17 of 20 hold 17.1% · 11 of 20 hold
Other early buyers 11.4% · 10 of 10 hold 11.7% · 10 of 10 hold 10.3% · 7 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)39.2% · 30 wallets35.6% · 30 wallets27.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)58.1%61.8%69.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)56.9%42.1%43.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder72.4% · 3 merged50.9% · 3 merged52.3% · 2 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc 22 s · transaction 4.24 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +16.63 NEAR
pair bought within 38.3 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 brbrba.near 28 s · transaction 12.00 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction +46.92 NEAR
pair bought within 32.4 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e 33 s · transaction 43.00 NEAR 28.9 min after buying · transaction +194.64 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 31.8 s of colddress6080.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.2 s of neargodd.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.2 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4 walletneartrader.near 35 s · transaction 16.00 NEAR not sold +59.79 NEAR
pair bought within 21.2 s of f1dc059f314d003…f34df · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.9 s of colddress6080.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.4 s of neargodd.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 zambona.near 42 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 8.8 min after buying · transaction +38.98 NEAR
pair bought within 22.3 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.0 s of klosd.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 nearovery.near 44 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR not sold +119.93 NEAR none found
7 f1dc059f314d003…f34df 56 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 37.7 min after buying · transaction +177.53 NEAR
pair bought within 8.6 s of colddress6080.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.2 s of walletneartrader.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.1 s of neargodd.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 aceng03.near 60 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction +4.89 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches
pair bought within 36.7 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.2 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.4 s of brbrba.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9 colddress6080.near 65 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +131.42 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches
pair bought within 19.5 s of neargodd.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.8 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.6 s of f1dc059f314d003…f34df · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10 0xpoww.near 68 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction +24.78 NEAR none found
11 klosd.near 75 s · transaction 43.00 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +80.73 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 42.5 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.7 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.0 s of zambona.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12 ef0cb6be9834d38…9d651 75 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +108.37 NEAR none found
13 neargodd.near 84 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +99.87 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 19.5 s of colddress6080.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.3 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.1 s of f1dc059f314d003…f34df · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
14 ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb 94 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +92.07 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 29.8 s of colddress6080.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.3 s of neargodd.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a 97 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 6.9 min after buying · transaction +15.65 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches
pair bought within 36.7 s of aceng03.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.2 s of coolnook7072.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.2 s of csrbul.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16 cutelace2414.near 110 s · transaction 160.00 NEAR 111 s after buying · transaction +52.17 NEAR
pair bought within 13.1 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.2 s of coolnook7072.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.8 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 csrbul.near 117 s · transaction 35.00 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +17.39 NEAR
pair bought within 19.2 s of 544dfa1031c3374…7c75d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.2 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.0 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 nonearforyou.near 2.0 min · transaction 44.00 NEAR 12.5 min after buying · transaction +90.68 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches
pair bought within 25.1 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.6 s of klosd.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 bigvinegar9113.near 2.0 min · transaction 75.00 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +21.17 NEAR
pair bought within 13.1 s of cutelace2414.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.9 s of petersmd.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 pkytgh.near 2.1 min · transaction 34.00 NEAR 17.8 min after buying · transaction +50.71 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of attentionisallyouneed….near

None known.