bbc.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near justhoot v2

bbc.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Risk score: Low 10 / 100 issued 2026-11-12 16:50 UTC · config v2l-1 · rules v1.3

+10
The creator account was created 31 min before the launch, and its largest transfer before the launch (1.00 NEAR, 2 min before) came from intents.near: the NEAR Intents contract or a bridge, which forward funds from other chains and exchanges, so the transfer does not show the original sender.
Evidence: transaction Asx5zKaBv1cbxzKEs…mUWPR, transaction FA3i53G3KqEnwC6ZF…8f32b

v2r signals (weights fitted on launch history before the split date), two expert rules whose points are set by hand (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange) and the creator's fee, whose points are an expert rule too: 8 points per 1 % of the trade that goes to the creator, at most 40 (not fitted). The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (248 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Pending. Decided from the T+60 min snapshot, and from the T+24 h snapshot when the first one shows no rug.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Outside buyers' net result: -4.46 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.16 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-12T17:50 UTC with config v2l-1; not final until T+24 h.

Launch

Launched	2026-11-12 16:50:55 UTC · block 224240001 · live
Transaction	3N2p2VD2aSVG2…X5x81
Creator	blacksite8642.near explorer
Pool	bbc.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|inear.nearonhq.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.15 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 15:43 UTC

27 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit	39	13 of 33 outside buyers
Buy pressure	0	buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak	69	the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity	0	0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-13 03:23 UTC
Price now	1.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.69x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	13 of 33 · 39.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.2% · 2 of 15 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	15	30	31	31
Buyers spent	85.03 NEAR	386.06 NEAR	402.02 NEAR	404.00 NEAR
Buyers net result	+2.61 NEAR	+18.89 NEAR	-2.23 NEAR	-4.46 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.17 NEAR	+0.19 NEAR	+0.17 NEAR	+0.16 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.09x	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x
Holders	12	21	12	7
Top 10 holders' share	99.7%	90.4%	99.7%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	<0.01% · holds	<0.01% · holds	<0.01% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	3.0% · 9 of 13 hold	5.1% · 9 of 15 hold	1.7% · 3 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	1.5% · 2 of 2 hold	5.8% · 11 of 15 hold	2.5% · 3 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	4.6% · 15 wallets	10.9% · 30 wallets	4.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	95.4%	89.1%	95.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.7%	90.4%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.7% · 0 merged	90.4% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	dolph.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	7 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	7 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	38.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 3.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	trade.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	7 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 62 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 72 of 129 launches (not put in a group)
4	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	7 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
5	cockis.near	8 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	18.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.24 NEAR	pair bought within 2.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	yazaplakal.send….near bot_wallet	8 s · transaction	0.60 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of trade.sendler-b.near · 62 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	8 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	13.0 min after buying · transaction	+2.43 NEAR	pair bought within 2.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
8	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	11 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	40.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 3.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
9	sergeserge1.tg	58 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.79 NEAR	pair bought within 6.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	64 s · transaction	7.50 NEAR	102 s after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 56.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 67 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	teeflux.user.in….near	2.1 min · transaction	12.86 NEAR	9.9 min after buying · transaction	+2.25 NEAR	pair bought within 23.8 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	absolutedust.near	2.3 min · transaction	10.84 NEAR	not sold	-0.05 NEAR	none found
13	js1112s.near	2.5 min · transaction	2.51 NEAR	not sold	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 23.3 s of cyber_processor….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.8 s of teeflux.user.in….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	cyber_processor….near	2.9 min · transaction	1.06 NEAR	not sold	-0.0025 NEAR	pair bought within 23.3 s of js1112s.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	3024eac17eb7993…234cc	4.5 min · transaction	26.33 NEAR	not sold	-3.42 NEAR	none found
16	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	5.1 min · transaction	29.19 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+4.66 NEAR	none found
17	soundrobe7279.near	5.4 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	18.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	none found
18	brave-owl-35.se….near bot_wallet	6.4 min · transaction	29.99 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.08 NEAR	none found
19	cyber_blob.user….near	6.7 min · transaction	28.98 NEAR	13.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.93 NEAR	pair bought within 9.5 s of toxic_sentinel.….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	toxic_sentinel.….near	6.9 min · transaction	29.97 NEAR	13.8 min after buying · transaction	-1.87 NEAR	pair bought within 9.5 s of cyber_blob.user….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of blacksite8642.near

None known.