BURN nearly.trade

burn.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (149 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 48 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 103.7% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: retardino.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 21:58:43 UTC, 303.0 min after the launch: HKQ7gTSpqkytV…ibara.
Outside buyers' net result: -13.59 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.58 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 48% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-27 16:55:43 UTC · block 217513056 · history: launch only
Transaction	EvnnHzuDMtVbK…FvdPR
Creator	retardino.near explorer
Pool	burn.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 0.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-27 23:24 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	103.7%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	303.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	23	23	23	24
Buyers spent	342.65 NEAR	558.01 NEAR	558.01 NEAR	558.01 NEAR	563.01 NEAR
Buyers net result	+52.64 NEAR	+108.98 NEAR	-13.25 NEAR	-13.25 NEAR	-13.59 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	103.7%
Insiders' net result	+10.84 NEAR	+16.13 NEAR	+0.40 NEAR	+0.40 NEAR	+0.58 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.51x	1.91x	1.91x	1.91x	1.91x
Holders	14	18	4	4	6
Top 10 holders' share	98.7%	89.8%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	9.3% · 8 of 12 hold	11.2% · 8 of 12 hold	0% · 0 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	9.4% · 4 of 4 hold	13.8% · 8 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	18.7% · 16 wallets	25.0% · 23 wallets	0% · 23 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	79.4%	73.1%	98.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	98.7%	89.8%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.7% · 0 merged	89.8% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51	22 s · transaction	39.80 NEAR	15.6 min after buying · transaction	+12.59 NEAR	none found
2	buymorerhea.near	56 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	17.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.88 NEAR	none found
3	gusri.near	83 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+6.71 NEAR	pair bought within 33.4 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	irene.user.intear.near	83 s · transaction	29.06 NEAR	14.5 min after buying · transaction	+6.81 NEAR	pair bought within 33.4 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.6 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	aceng03.near	117 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	15.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.52 NEAR	pair bought within 49.0 s of coolnook7072.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.0 s of llllord.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	80289da0a50f047…d6989	118 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	118 s after buying · transaction	+2.54 NEAR	pair bought within 1.2 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.6 s of irene.user.intear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	llllord.near	2.5 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	23.3 min after buying · transaction	-11.38 NEAR	pair bought within 31.0 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of coolnook7072.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	coolnook7072.near	2.8 min · transaction	35.00 NEAR	73 s after buying · transaction	-1.46 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 49.0 s of aceng03.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.6 s of acd876fa672624e…fa933 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of llllord.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9	vu260797.near	3.0 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	15.6 min after buying · transaction	-8.20 NEAR	pair bought within 11.5 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263	3.1 min · transaction	3.98 NEAR	8.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.36 NEAR	pair bought within 22.9 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.2 s of huuchita.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.9 s of anaktuyul24.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	acd876fa672624e…fa933	3.5 min · transaction	29.85 NEAR	23 s after buying · transaction	-1.96 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 41.6 s of coolnook7072.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	huuchita.near	3.6 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	14.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.36 NEAR	pair bought within 22.5 s of 495d3af763bd9b3…f8cd2 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.2 s of 70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	anaktuyul24.near	3.7 min · transaction	49.75 NEAR	7.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 35.9 s of 70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.8 s of coolnook7072.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	544dfa1031c3374…7c75d	3.9 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	+12.02 NEAR	none found
15	495d3af763bd9b3…f8cd2	4.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.25 NEAR	pair bought within 22.5 s of huuchita.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	4.0 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	7.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.56 NEAR	none found
17	gnomebird.near	5.3 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	21.4 min after buying · transaction	-3.58 NEAR	none found
18	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	6.3 min · transaction	20.90 NEAR	17.4 min after buying · transaction	-6.53 NEAR	none found
19	fendi88.near	7.7 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	11.6 min after buying · transaction	-9.58 NEAR	none found
20	km686.tg	8.6 min · transaction	9.00 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	-2.66 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of retardino.near

None known.