CHUBBY nearly.trade

chubby.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2553 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 5.47 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 162.4% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: camelyomost.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-06 02:11:44 UTC, 35.1 min after the launch: B231kUYBhfPEY…fsRDb.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -5.47 NEAR · insiders' net result: +10.29 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-06 01:36:35 UTC · block 218724471 · history: launch only
Transaction88pxZundQazck…Y5VxX
Creatorcamelyomost.near explorer
Poolchubby.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy15.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-06 03:12 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-06 03:12 UTC
Price now0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.88x the peak
Outside buyers in profit1 of 10 · 10%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%162.4%164.2%
Dev's first sell after launch———35.1 min35.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)56101010
Buyers spent50.00 NEAR56.00 NEAR95.55 NEAR95.55 NEAR95.55 NEAR
Buyers net result-1.90 NEAR-2.01 NEAR-0.92 NEAR-5.47 NEAR-5.56 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%162.4%164.2%
Insiders' net result+0.01 NEAR+0.18 NEAR+1.27 NEAR+10.29 NEAR+10.54 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.08x1.08x1.08x1.08x1.08x
Holders22743
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.2% · 1 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 5 hold
Other early buyers — 0.6% · 1 of 1 hold 0.9% · 2 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.2% · 5 wallets0.6% · 6 wallets0.9% · 10 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.8%99.5%99.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 10 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 10 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction +0.18 NEAR
2 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede 30 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction -0.56 NEAR
3 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 30 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR
4 kimpet77.near 51 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction -0.65 NEAR
5 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 71 s · transaction 12.50 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction -1.25 NEAR
6 vananana.near 14.7 min · transaction 6.00 NEAR not sold -0.32 NEAR
7 buyorholdortrade.near 25.4 min · transaction 3.60 NEAR not sold -0.22 NEAR
8 ba0f0d4ae4338b9…b33c8 26.0 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 9.4 min after buying · transaction -0.55 NEAR
9 ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 27.1 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 9.7 min after buying · transaction -0.49 NEAR
10 yildirimoflu.near 29.5 min · transaction 11.00 NEAR 10.6 min after buying · transaction -1.38 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of camelyomost.near

None known.