ducky.v2-launchpad.just….near justhoot v2

ducky.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (805 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 38 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 100.0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 9228b1c199bc8e0b1fdcd…de5ba (recipient).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-19 16:44:10 UTC, 158.7 min after the launch: AZB2XwpWBVzVx…posFZ.
  • Received tokens from the dev: 9228b1c199bc8e0b1fdcd…de5ba.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -121.33 NEAR · insiders' net result: +45.23 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 38% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-19 14:05:28 UTC · block 220666829 · history: launch only
Transaction3ePaKKuuRDCTj…CiA6Y
Creatorduckygames.near explorer
Poolducky.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy34.86 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 18:44 UTC

18 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit39 26 of 66 outside buyers
Buy pressure0 buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak33 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity0 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-13 01:42 UTC
Price now0.92x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.33x the peak
Outside buyers in profit26 of 66 · 39.4%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group3.9% · 1 of 13 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1010154366
Buyers spent102.98 NEAR102.98 NEAR126.87 NEAR758.61 NEAR1,453.52 NEAR
Buyers net result+6.17 NEAR-0.80 NEAR+2.84 NEAR+368.15 NEAR-121.33 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11112
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%100.0%
Insiders' net result+43.69 NEAR+40.75 NEAR+43.13 NEAR+96.19 NEAR+45.23 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.18x1.18x1.18x2.61x2.77x
Holders116123711
Top 10 holders' share99.2%100%98.4%75.4%100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.3% · holds 3.3% · holds 3.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 8.2% · 10 of 10 hold 5.3% · 5 of 10 hold 10.9% · 7 of 13 hold
Other early buyers — — 13.5% · 16 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)8.2% · 10 wallets5.3% · 10 wallets24.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)88.5%91.4%72.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.2%100%75.4%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.2% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged75.9% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 9.2 min after buying · transaction +0.06 NEAR
2 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction +0.06 NEAR
3 cockis.near 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +1.54 NEAR
4 ro52.near 8 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction +1.02 NEAR
5 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 29 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 55.8 min after buying · transaction +1.34 NEAR
6 cyber_processor….near 33 s · transaction 1.98 NEAR 8.1 min after buying · transaction +0.15 NEAR
7 js1112s.near 68 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 7.7 min after buying · transaction +6.61 NEAR
8 beenhere.near 95 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 11.4 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
9 telerman.near 2.3 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR not sold +64.15 NEAR
10 e8a162641a55288…58210 2.4 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR not sold +17.36 NEAR
11 i5229173676.tg 25.1 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +1.27 NEAR
12 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede 27.7 min · transaction 119.52 NEAR 21.2 min after buying · transaction +31.19 NEAR
13 luckydata4368.near 27.9 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR not sold +4.95 NEAR
14 ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 28.1 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 20.7 min after buying · transaction +0.88 NEAR
15 snow-lie.near 28.6 min · transaction 3.96 NEAR not sold +4.76 NEAR
16 keto2wavay.near 34.1 min · transaction 1.20 NEAR not sold +1.34 NEAR
17 bborofather.near 42.2 min · transaction 11.30 NEAR not sold +12.35 NEAR
18 gottalightsir.near 43.4 min · transaction 9.96 NEAR not sold +10.52 NEAR
19 zjroboz3r0.near 44.3 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction +0.87 NEAR
20 rekttin.near 44.4 min · transaction 79.68 NEAR not sold +69.34 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of duckygames.near

None known.