elon2028-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near
Risk score: Low 5 / 100 issued 2026-11-10 12:47 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 37 % (271 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
No rug. outside buyers' net result +95.69 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 37 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-11T12:47 UTC with config v1-fit-1.
| Launched | 2026-11-10 12:47:23 UTC · block 223918043 · live |
|---|---|
| Transaction | CoL2XLs814roW…k3YZi |
| Creator | elonmuskcoin.near explorer |
| Pool | elon2028-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000 |
| Dev buy | 0.00 NEAR |
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 04:21 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
| Last trade | 2026-11-11 04:21 UTC |
|---|---|
| Price now | 0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.37x the peak |
| Outside buyers in profit | 9 of 17 · 52.9% |
| Last 15 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Last 60 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Buyers in the last hour | 0 |
| Dev account | 0% · 0 of 1 hold |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 0% · 0 of 10 hold |
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
| Metric | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+30 min | T+60 min | T+24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired) | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Dev's first sell after launch | — | 10.0 min | 10.0 min | 10.0 min | 10.0 min |
| Buyers (other than the insiders) | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| Buyers spent | 412.66 NEAR | 416.80 NEAR | 416.80 NEAR | 416.80 NEAR | 417.80 NEAR |
| Buyers net result | +268.36 NEAR | +95.85 NEAR | +95.85 NEAR | +95.69 NEAR | +95.67 NEAR |
| Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Insiders sold (share of what they acquired) | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Insiders' net result | +310.82 NEAR | -109.62 NEAR | -109.62 NEAR | -109.62 NEAR | -109.62 NEAR |
| Highest price vs first buyer | 2.69x | 2.69x | 2.69x | 2.69x | 2.69x |
| Holders | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Top 10 holders' share | 99.3% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — |
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
| Holder | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dev account | 21.2% · holds | 0% · holds nothing | 0% · holds nothing |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — | — | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 11.6% · 9 of 10 hold | <0.01% · 1 of 10 hold | <0.01% · 1 of 10 hold |
| Other early buyers | 6.1% · 6 of 6 hold | 1.0% · 1 of 6 hold | 0% · 0 of 6 hold |
| All early buyers (the six rows above) | 17.7% · 16 wallets | 1.0% · 16 wallets | 0% · 16 wallets |
| Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers) | 61.1% | 99.0% | 100% |
| Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets) | 99.3% | 100% | 100% |
| Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder | 99.5% · 1 merged | 100% · 0 merged | 100% · 0 merged |
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
| # | Wallet | After the launch | Spent | First sell | Net result at T+60 | Links (recorded transfers and trades) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | wrapz-z.near independent sniper | 8 s · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 9.9 min after buying · transaction | +0.08 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 2 | c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer | 8 s · transaction | 8.00 NEAR | 8.1 min after buying · transaction | +0.65 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 3 | dolph.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 8.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.68 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 4 | cockis.near | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 13.1 min after buying · transaction | +0.0043 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 5 | jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 3.2 min after buying · transaction | +1.08 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 6 | trade.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 8.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.67 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 72 of 129 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 7 | 56c9a6ef438223b….near | 23 s · transaction | 147.00 NEAR | 4.7 min after buying · transaction | +146.03 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 8 | alola.near | 35 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 3.1 min after buying · transaction | +0.76 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 9 | phbo.near | 46 s · transaction | 10.00 NEAR | 7.2 min after buying · transaction | -0.27 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 53 of those launches
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 10 | toxic_sentinel.….near | 62 s · transaction | 30.00 NEAR | 4.0 min after buying · transaction | +8.78 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 11 | fucktrench.near | 93 s · transaction | 30.00 NEAR | 44.2 min after buying · transaction | -15.47 NEAR | none found |
| 12 | fiery_spire1.us….near | 2.6 min · transaction | 3.47 NEAR | 6.0 min after buying · transaction | -0.71 NEAR | none found |
| 13 | mev.user.intear.near | 3.2 min · transaction | 19.59 NEAR | 2.1 min after buying · transaction | -1.89 NEAR | none found |
| 14 | d9fc0aa607fcbba…42ea2 | 3.5 min · transaction | 1.07 NEAR | 7.5 min after buying · transaction | -0.61 NEAR | none found |
| 15 | rekttin.near | 3.7 min · transaction | 149.40 NEAR | 4.4 min after buying · transaction | -42.84 NEAR | none found |
| 16 | trader.slmm.near | 4.7 min · transaction | 8.28 NEAR | 2.6 min after buying · transaction | -1.27 NEAR | none found |
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.
None known.