Received 523.72 NEAR 24.8 h before the launch from enleap-test.near, whose earlier launch hoot-8fe3f1.launchpad.justhoot.near (made by justhoot-owner.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (1409 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +85724.50 NEAR · insiders' net result: +22076.65 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 60% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-30 12:52:39 UTC · block 217919627 · history: launch only
35out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
74
1248 of 1679 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
66
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 16:34 UTC
Price now
122.76x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.66x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
1248 of 1679 · 74.3%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
23.3% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
3.1% · 2 of 7 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
87
283
405
501
906
Buyers spent
11,296.23 NEAR
29,041.68 NEAR
41,344.33 NEAR
56,369.92 NEAR
106,374.45 NEAR
Buyers net result
+71,603.49 NEAR
+30,818.56 NEAR
+65,388.49 NEAR
+53,827.15 NEAR
+85,724.50 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+18,494.83 NEAR
+9,056.56 NEAR
+17,242.49 NEAR
+14,622.96 NEAR
+22,076.65 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
56.62x
58.87x
58.87x
94.79x
110.00x
Holders
83
239
331
386
605
Top 10 holders' share
79.0%
70.0%
65.2%
64.6%
58.2%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
11.5% · holds
11.5% · holds
11.5% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
13.9% · 7 of 7 hold
6.4% · 7 of 7 hold
5.5% · 7 of 7 hold
Other early buyers
30.2% · 22 of 23 hold
22.0% · 20 of 23 hold
18.7% · 17 of 23 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
44.1% · 30 wallets
28.4% · 30 wallets
24.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
44.3%
60.0%
64.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
79.0%
70.0%
64.6%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
81.1% · 1 merged
71.4% · 1 merged
66.1% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.