IRONCLAW nearly.trade

ironclaw-1dca2f.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: no decided launches yet (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 80 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: clawir0n.near (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: +40.67 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.21 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 80% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-22 23:42:47 UTC · block 216833555 · history: launch only
Transaction6LMAqxBCtEHUZ…JwVrR
Creatorclawir0n.near explorer
Poolironclaw-1dca2f.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 11:51 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-06 11:51 UTC
Price now1.51x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.14x the peak
Outside buyers in profit73 of 256 · 28.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch————1100.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)145716
Buyers spent1.00 NEAR53.10 NEAR91.10 NEAR154.10 NEAR459.92 NEAR
Buyers net result0.00 NEAR+0.16 NEAR+4.69 NEAR+17.81 NEAR+40.67 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+1.21 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.00x1.05x1.14x1.28x1.83x
Holders256812
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers 0.1% · 1 of 1 hold 4.9% · 4 of 4 hold 13% · 7 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.1% · 1 wallets4.9% · 4 wallets13% · 7 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.9%95.1%87%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 7 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 mozart98.near 4.3 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.28 NEAR
2 cuplis123.tg 6.7 min · transaction 1.10 NEAR not sold +0.31 NEAR
3 edodoe.near 10.9 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.28 NEAR
4 ffafsa.near 11.5 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR not sold +10.80 NEAR
5 colddress6080.near 27.9 min · transaction 38.00 NEAR not sold +4.58 NEAR
6 neargodd.near 34.0 min · transaction 28.00 NEAR not sold +1.57 NEAR
7 nearwithmee.near 34.9 min · transaction 35.00 NEAR not sold 0.00 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of clawir0n.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-29 18:38 UTC nearly.trade shield-2.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only