judges.v2-launchpad.jus….near justhoot v2

judges.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 27 % (758 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -24.45 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.17 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 48% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-19 22:42:10 UTC · block 220719035 · history: launch only
TransactionDajaPYHLMdje7…NX7Ch
Creatornearjudges.near explorer
Pooljudges.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-05 17:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-05 17:45 UTC
Price now0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.47x the peak
Outside buyers in profit5 of 24 · 20.8%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)2022222222
Buyers spent522.15 NEAR542.23 NEAR542.23 NEAR542.23 NEAR542.23 NEAR
Buyers net result-19.70 NEAR-23.81 NEAR-24.24 NEAR-24.24 NEAR-24.45 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR-0.0059 NEAR-0.04 NEAR-0.04 NEAR-0.17 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.11x2.11x2.11x2.11x2.11x
Holders65441
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0.1% · holds 0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 2.1% · 4 of 16 hold 0.6% · 4 of 16 hold 0.3% · 2 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 2.0% · 2 of 4 hold 0.6% · 1 of 6 hold 0.6% · 1 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)4.2% · 20 wallets1.1% · 22 wallets0.8% · 22 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)95.8%98.8%99.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 5 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR 5.0 min after buying · transaction -1.91 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.0 s of cockis.near · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 116 s after buying · transaction +0.10 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
3 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
4 ro52.near 5 s · transaction 0.20 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5 cockis.near 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.02 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches
pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
6 hmmmm.user.intear.near 21 s · transaction 67.89 NEAR 51 s after buying · transaction +48.82 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches
pair bought within 16.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.2 s of cockis.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7 teeflux.user.in….near 23 s · transaction 21.58 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction -3.01 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 17.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.0 s of shortgirl.user.….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 fiery_spire1.us….near 23 s · transaction 8.20 NEAR 66 s after buying · transaction +1.15 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 5.5 s of shortgirl.user.….near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 27 s · transaction 10.14 NEAR 92 s after buying · transaction -0.82 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 27 s · transaction 121.62 NEAR 64 s after buying · transaction -8.77 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches
pair bought within 21.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
11 shortgirl.user.….near 29 s · transaction 19.80 NEAR 60 s after buying · transaction -1.55 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 5.5 s of fiery_spire1.us….near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.0 s of teeflux.user.in….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12 3e5f029edb67f02…4bd45 34 s · transaction 12.16 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction -3.95 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 6.8 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.8 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.1 s of cockis.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
13 62d1b9c88f35252…f6973 38 s · transaction 60.80 NEAR 41 s after buying · transaction +1.61 NEAR
pair bought within 33.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.9 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 whitehare1976.near 54 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 49 s after buying · transaction -7.13 NEAR none found
15 7b0y.near 57 s · transaction 80.00 NEAR 23 s after buying · transaction -15.25 NEAR
pair bought within 51.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 hybrid.user.int….near 63 s · transaction 23.76 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction -10.60 NEAR
pair bought within 58.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17 e8a162641a55288…58210 65 s · transaction 12.00 NEAR 20 s after buying · transaction -3.67 NEAR
pair bought within 59.6 s of cockis.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.3 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.3 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
18 forbescover.near 67 s · transaction 34.65 NEAR 4.4 min after buying · transaction -16.02 NEAR none found
19 748545ba09e20b4…50999 101 s · transaction 4.05 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction -0.52 NEAR none found
20 1070fb609924e73…7cc3b 2.8 min · transaction 20.26 NEAR 85 s after buying · transaction -1.61 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearjudges.near

None known.