KAIVI nearly.trade

kaivi.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2437 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -9.67 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.19 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 58% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-04 15:31:49 UTC · block 218515939 · history: launch only
Transaction	6sp5jfqqAxyLN…H1Yw9
Creator	jsfjewd.near explorer
Pool	kaivi.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	5.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-04 23:20 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	19	24	27	28	29
Buyers spent	396.00 NEAR	561.45 NEAR	568.10 NEAR	568.90 NEAR	569.90 NEAR
Buyers net result	+33.19 NEAR	+14.56 NEAR	+16.61 NEAR	+12.50 NEAR	-9.67 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+2.10 NEAR	+1.61 NEAR	+1.68 NEAR	+1.53 NEAR	+0.19 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.70x	1.70x	1.70x	1.70x	1.70x
Holders	15	12	16	18	8
Top 10 holders' share	98.1%	100.0%	98.9%	99.2%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.5% · holds	0.5% · holds	0.5% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	13.4% · 10 of 14 hold	11.0% · 7 of 15 hold	11.0% · 7 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	3.1% · 4 of 5 hold	1.5% · 4 of 9 hold	1.8% · 7 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	16.5% · 19 wallets	12.5% · 24 wallets	12.8% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	83.0%	87.0%	86.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	98.1%	100.0%	99.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.7% · 1 merged	100.0% · 1 merged	99.2% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	axxe.near	27 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	not sold	+10.06 NEAR	pair bought within 58.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.7 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	soundsite36.near	27 s · transaction	29.70 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	+11.78 NEAR	none found
3	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	53 s · transaction	105.00 NEAR	10.0 min after buying · transaction	-4.39 NEAR	pair bought within 31.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.7 s of axxe.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	f044e90b41ae546…4106c	61 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	+8.43 NEAR	pair bought within 24.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	lambadaa.near	68 s · transaction	67.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+7.14 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 17.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.2 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	1abb937e7aebae7…3416e	83 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	9.4 min after buying · transaction	+1.32 NEAR	pair bought within 23.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.2 s of lambadaa.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	85 s · transaction	12.50 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	-1.66 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 21.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.0 s of lambadaa.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.4 s of axxe.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	e8a162641a55288…58210	107 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.51 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 52.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	d0tz.near	2.0 min · transaction	49.50 NEAR	not sold	-6.94 NEAR	pair bought within 39.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10	truezest4223.near	2.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.29 NEAR	pair bought within 36.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	579b7294974b54d…30203	2.4 min · transaction	1.70 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 36.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12	sergeserge1.tg	2.4 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	44 s after buying · transaction	+0.90 NEAR	pair bought within 4.8 s of volat.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	volat.near	2.5 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	105 s after buying · transaction	+1.43 NEAR	pair bought within 9.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of sergeserge1.tg · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	2.6 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 52.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.2 s of d0tz.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
15	nonearforyou.near	2.7 min · transaction	39.60 NEAR	8.0 min after buying · transaction	-4.44 NEAR	none found
16	bassoman.tg	3.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	none found
17	5fe5e1c569afd5f…dd229	3.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.28 NEAR	none found
18	smoothjail1300.near	4.2 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	-2.24 NEAR	none found
19	js1112s.near	4.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.30 NEAR	pair bought within 34.3 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	5.2 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	91 s after buying · transaction	+0.20 NEAR	pair bought within 34.3 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of jsfjewd.near

None known.