In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
No risk signal fired for this launch.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (149 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +91.89 NEAR · insiders' net result: +8.46 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 40% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 16:57:10 UTC · block 217513204 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-03 04:04 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-03 04:04 UTC
Price now
0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.21x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
27 of 74 · 36.5%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 6 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
16
29
35
37
74
Buyers spent
611.75 NEAR
1,162.52 NEAR
1,310.74 NEAR
1,350.64 NEAR
2,159.66 NEAR
Buyers net result
+335.75 NEAR
+1,103.44 NEAR
+609.28 NEAR
+541.53 NEAR
+91.89 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+13.34 NEAR
+28.50 NEAR
+19.67 NEAR
+18.32 NEAR
+8.46 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
2.37x
3.98x
4.58x
4.58x
4.58x
Holders
18
29
28
28
34
Top 10 holders' share
82.9%
64.5%
69.7%
71.3%
82.9%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.8% · holds
0.8% · holds
0.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
3.6% · 4 of 4 hold
2.9% · 3 of 6 hold
1.2% · 1 of 6 hold
Other early buyers
32.7% · 12 of 12 hold
47.4% · 22 of 23 hold
40.3% · 18 of 24 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
36.4% · 16 wallets
50.3% · 29 wallets
41.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
62.8%
48.8%
57.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
82.9%
64.5%
71.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
82.9% · 0 merged
64.5% · 0 merged
71.3% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.