MERT nearly.trade

mert.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (937 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 58 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 102.5% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: jackfriar.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 11:31:20 UTC, 923.0 min after the launch: 7RxQt897zLscc…m6pXj.
Outside buyers' net result: -14.35 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.55 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 58% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-15 20:08:19 UTC · block 220124303 · history: launch only
Transaction	J8VR3aBpZvj2o…BhBjb
Creator	jackfriar.near explorer
Pool	mert.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-16 15:53 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	102.5%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	923.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	9	19	19	19	20
Buyers spent	69.85 NEAR	297.78 NEAR	297.78 NEAR	297.78 NEAR	298.78 NEAR
Buyers net result	+2.55 NEAR	+2.93 NEAR	-8.59 NEAR	-8.59 NEAR	-14.35 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	102.5%
Insiders' net result	+5.96 NEAR	+10.67 NEAR	+5.18 NEAR	+5.18 NEAR	+0.55 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.14x	1.56x	1.56x	1.56x	1.56x
Holders	9	11	6	6	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	99.4%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.7% · holds	3.7% · holds	3.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.5% · 8 of 9 hold	9.1% · 7 of 14 hold	4.4% · 4 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	—	0.3% · 3 of 5 hold	0.1% · 1 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	5.5% · 9 wallets	9.4% · 19 wallets	4.5% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	90.8%	86.9%	91.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	99.4%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	99.4% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	13.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 29.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.9 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.8 s of js1112s.near · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	23 s · transaction	18.59 NEAR	not sold	+1.24 NEAR	pair bought within 17.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of js1112s.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3	js1112s.near	30 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	15.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.39 NEAR	pair bought within 24.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	35 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	not sold	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 29.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	55 s · transaction	18.63 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.16 NEAR	pair bought within 50.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.7 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	101 s · transaction	6.51 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 45.7 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.1 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	unfair_virus1.u….near	117 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	13.6 min after buying · transaction	+1.17 NEAR	pair bought within 19.9 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	alola.near	2.3 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 36.1 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.9 s of unfair_virus1.u….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.0 s of imweak.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	imweak.near	2.9 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.28 NEAR	pair bought within 35.0 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	sourbread3444.near	5.7 min · transaction	93.00 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.26 NEAR	none found
11	rekttin.near	5.8 min · transaction	29.88 NEAR	10.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.57 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 12.3 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.5 s of suisucks.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	6.0 min · transaction	2.97 NEAR	109 s after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 12.3 s of rekttin.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	suisucks.near	6.2 min · transaction	14.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	+2.36 NEAR	pair bought within 22.5 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	cryptobullz.near	7.7 min · transaction	1.18 NEAR	12.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.21 NEAR	none found
15	zjroboz3r0.near	8.7 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.52 NEAR	none found
16	iagipero.near	9.1 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	not sold	-9.44 NEAR	pair bought within 10.6 s of lowpant8440.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	lowpant8440.near	9.3 min · transaction	22.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-3.82 NEAR	pair bought within 10.6 s of iagipero.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	poliag.near	11.3 min · transaction	2.10 NEAR	8.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.65 NEAR	none found
19	befikre.near	12.2 min · transaction	1.62 NEAR	not sold	-0.45 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of jackfriar.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-28 05:04 UTC	nearly.trade	nearpack.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-09-28 13:18 UTC	nearly.trade	nearlymoon.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-01 16:26 UTC	nearly.trade	jo.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-03 10:05 UTC	nearly.trade	unrlzd-5.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-03 10:25 UTC	nearly.trade	niggerninu.nearlytrade.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-08 11:36 UTC	nearly.trade	qinu-5.nearlytrade.near	5 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only