MYSTERY nearly.trade

mystery.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 10 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+10
Received 100.00 NEAR 33.5 h before the launch from 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5a9735ce4367f64e8431541328d3a72600ed72a9633f2e0ede, whose earlier launch basedbot.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 9kJwuJBpGHLfVkCWX…xCr6k, launch basedbot.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (802 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +186.20 NEAR · insiders' net result: +10.69 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 78% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-16 20:11:01 UTC · block 220269172 · history: launch only
Transaction	7i8F3reV7tVMV…hGCDE
Creator	0859d692c061dd77c9f103f28b9554dd4697e4d8432ddd937f607f7e49f84d60 explorer
Pool	mystery.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	10.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 0.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-19 16:51 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-19 16:51 UTC
Price now	0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.36x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	14 of 32 · 43.8%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	27.6% · 3 of 13 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	15	19	20	21	32
Buyers spent	563.21 NEAR	943.18 NEAR	944.67 NEAR	944.77 NEAR	1,262.66 NEAR
Buyers net result	+185.28 NEAR	+164.82 NEAR	+125.87 NEAR	+135.96 NEAR	+186.20 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+10.54 NEAR	+10.25 NEAR	+8.87 NEAR	+9.25 NEAR	+10.69 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.03x	2.25x	2.25x	2.25x	2.67x
Holders	13	10	7	8	11
Top 10 holders' share	99.3%	100%	100%	100%	100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.0% · holds	1.0% · holds	1.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	27.0% · 10 of 13 hold	26.9% · 7 of 13 hold	25.6% · 5 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	2.3% · 2 of 2 hold	1.5% · 2 of 5 hold	0.1% · 2 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	29.3% · 15 wallets	28.4% · 19 wallets	25.6% · 21 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	69.8%	70.6%	73.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.3%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.6% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	11 s · transaction	7.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+1.39 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	11 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.94 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
3	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	12 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	14.8 min after buying · transaction	+4.89 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 1.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	14 s · transaction	19.91 NEAR	7.3 min after buying · transaction	+21.15 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 3.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	21 s · transaction	249.00 NEAR	not sold	+31.27 NEAR	pair bought within 10.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.1 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	567e43c697f4113…84e34	21 s · transaction	100.00 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+42.51 NEAR	pair bought within 10.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	ba0f0d4ae4338b9…b33c8	52 s · transaction	199.20 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	+4.92 NEAR	pair bought within 25.3 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.9 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	80289da0a50f047…d6989	68 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+2.61 NEAR	pair bought within 9.1 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	jack_spar-row.near	74 s · transaction	130.50 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+5.88 NEAR	none found
10	alola.near	77 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	10.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 7.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.4 s of rekttin.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	rekttin.near	80 s · transaction	99.60 NEAR	not sold	+20.69 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 3.4 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.4 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12	hybrid.user.int….near	84 s · transaction	37.62 NEAR	22 s after buying · transaction	+0.58 NEAR	pair bought within 7.1 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.7 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	84 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.64 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 7.6 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of rekttin.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of hybrid.user.int….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
14	628a1f98ce15fa2…bde96	2.0 min · transaction	2.04 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.23 NEAR	pair bought within 36.4 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	solar-viper-649….near	4.1 min · transaction	15.76 NEAR	7.7 min after buying · transaction	-3.99 NEAR	none found
16	barrey.near	7.1 min · transaction	6.93 NEAR	11.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.71 NEAR	none found
17	2f826272c46bfc2…f9b4c	9.6 min · transaction	12.15 NEAR	98 s after buying · transaction	-2.70 NEAR	dev side received 25.00 NEAR from ba0f0d4ae4338b9…b33c8 (a member of the dev's linked group), 4143.0 min before its first buy · transaction
18	4f860ce39bf1358…64b8c	11.7 min · transaction	4.98 NEAR	97 s after buying · transaction	+1.41 NEAR	none found
19	openuser.near	12.6 min · transaction	22.00 NEAR	6.4 min after buying · transaction	+1.69 NEAR	none found
20	cold_jeeter9.us….near	15.6 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	not sold	-0.07 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 0859d692c061dd77c9f10…84d60

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-15 10:55 UTC	nearly.trade	rinkycat.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-17 21:17 UTC	nearly.trade	bat-2.nearlytrade.near	35 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only