NEARBAT nearly.trade

nearbat.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 11 % (923 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -21.19 NEAR · insiders' net result: +15.68 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 28% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 12:01:17 UTC · block 217774320 · history: launch only
Transaction	BsEYC6MvCnvmM…YKfXb
Creator	nearbatdeployer.near explorer
Pool	nearbat.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	42.51 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-10 14:03 UTC
Price now	0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.20x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	29 of 84 · 34.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 27 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	40	65	74	80	83
Buyers spent	1,111.78 NEAR	2,289.49 NEAR	2,749.35 NEAR	3,085.00 NEAR	3,101.69 NEAR
Buyers net result	+844.97 NEAR	+629.57 NEAR	+618.55 NEAR	+155.27 NEAR	-21.19 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+115.50 NEAR	+98.31 NEAR	+98.12 NEAR	+48.32 NEAR	+15.68 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	3.53x	4.69x	4.69x	4.69x	4.69x
Holders	39	45	44	29	14
Top 10 holders' share	64.7%	66.7%	70.7%	86.8%	99.7%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	4.0% · holds	4.0% · holds	4.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	30.7% · 24 of 27 hold	20.1% · 19 of 27 hold	3.1% · 6 of 27 hold
Other early buyers	4.0% · 3 of 3 hold	4.2% · 3 of 3 hold	3.5% · 1 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	34.7% · 30 wallets	24.3% · 30 wallets	6.6% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	61.3%	71.8%	89.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	64.7%	66.7%	86.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	74.6% · 1 merged	75.8% · 1 merged	92.2% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	61 s · transaction	40.44 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+23.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
2	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	61 s · transaction	40.44 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+23.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	61 s · transaction	40.44 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+19.31 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4	0dcab0ca2c0d3dd…cb7ed	68 s · transaction	1.01 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.64 NEAR	pair bought within 39.7 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	supremegay.near	70 s · transaction	49.60 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+99.73 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 6.2 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.9 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	73 s · transaction	28.32 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.46 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 12.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7	syndi95.near	76 s · transaction	54.56 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	+42.74 NEAR	pair bought within 6.2 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	e8a162641a55288…58210	95 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	74 s after buying · transaction	+2.04 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 12.2 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	107 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+1.22 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 12.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.7 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
10	luckyfrog8326.near	115 s · transaction	180.00 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+44.88 NEAR	pair bought within 9.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.4 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11	lorenzo18.near	2.0 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	4.1 min after buying · transaction	+26.32 NEAR	pair bought within 4.4 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.2 s of snuffdog.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.2 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
12	579b7294974b54d…30203	2.1 min · transaction	44.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.04 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 17.8 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
13	snuffdog.near	2.3 min · transaction	19.92 NEAR	16.8 min after buying · transaction	+10.15 NEAR	pair bought within 42.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.2 s of lorenzo18.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	quickviper8793.near	2.5 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	not sold	+19.46 NEAR	none found
15	teend.near	2.5 min · transaction	55.00 NEAR	105 s after buying · transaction	+12.18 NEAR	pair bought within 7.2 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16	farcastmage.near	2.6 min · transaction	29.76 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+47.14 NEAR	pair bought within 56.6 s of pajet.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.4 s of lorenzo18.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
17	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	2.7 min · transaction	24.80 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	+18.93 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 52.6 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.7 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.3 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
18	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	2.8 min · transaction	20.24 NEAR	98 s after buying · transaction	-2.12 NEAR	pair bought within 57.9 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.3 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
19	eeeb3e53f579ab2…f3428	2.8 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+7.99 NEAR	pair bought within 42.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	flatwatch4727.near	3.0 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	14.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearbatdeployer.near

None known.