NEARIZONAI nearly.trade

nearizonai.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (5c33c6218d47e00ef229f60da78d0897e1ee9665312550b8afd5f9c7bc6957d2) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 11 % (920 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -102.96 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 25% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 11:52:54 UTC · block 217773472 · history: launch only
Transaction	B76naiWLg8nDo…wpnj8
Creator	nearizonai.near explorer
Pool	nearizonai.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.50 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-29 05:38 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-29 05:38 UTC
Price now	1.00x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.24x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	30 of 94 · 31.9%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0.0% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 26 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	66	85	91	94	94
Buyers spent	1,179.39 NEAR	2,251.53 NEAR	2,551.45 NEAR	2,588.18 NEAR	2,617.94 NEAR
Buyers net result	+490.07 NEAR	-43.37 NEAR	-4.84 NEAR	-95.17 NEAR	-102.96 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.96 NEAR	+0.21 NEAR	+0.35 NEAR	+0.08 NEAR	+0.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	3.42x	4.12x	4.12x	4.12x	4.12x
Holders	56	25	35	25	11
Top 10 holders' share	62.2%	90.5%	79.5%	88.1%	100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.0% · holds	0.0% · holds	0.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	25.4% · 21 of 26 hold	5.9% · 3 of 26 hold	1.4% · 2 of 26 hold
Other early buyers	0.9% · 1 of 4 hold	0.9% · 1 of 4 hold	0.9% · 1 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	26.3% · 30 wallets	6.9% · 30 wallets	2.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	73.6%	93.1%	97.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	62.2%	90.5%	88.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	78.2% · 2 merged	90.5% · 0 merged	88.1% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	someonetobeloved.near	30 s · transaction	71.44 NEAR	27.9 min after buying · transaction	+10.46 NEAR	pair bought within 56.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1	46 s · transaction	9.92 NEAR	not sold	-0.70 NEAR	pair bought within 52.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.6 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.2 s of darknes.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3	d0tz.near	52 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+36.92 NEAR	pair bought within 34.9 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	supremegay.near	60 s · transaction	89.28 NEAR	4.1 min after buying · transaction	+29.61 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 38.8 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
5	9f6627910d339dc…aa48f	63 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+27.55 NEAR	none found
6	darknes.near	63 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	111 s after buying · transaction	+6.40 NEAR	pair bought within 35.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.7 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	oyennn.near	67 s · transaction	49.60 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+71.47 NEAR	pair bought within 49.0 s of 5afbf66ccec6b03…c4bfd · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.7 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	luckyfrog8326.near	78 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	+13.19 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches pair bought within 20.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.1 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
9	13ec39837af5ec9…d1b62	78 s · transaction	19.84 NEAR	78 s after buying · transaction	+9.21 NEAR	pair bought within 18.8 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.5 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.5 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10	ericakang.user.….near	80 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	-3.48 NEAR	none found
11	ebisidiaidi.near	83 s · transaction	200.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+54.86 NEAR	pair bought within 15.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	87 s · transaction	24.40 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+8.75 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
13	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	87 s · transaction	24.40 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+7.26 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs
14	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	87 s · transaction	24.40 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+7.14 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
15	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	87 s · transaction	24.40 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+7.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
16	petersmd.near	90 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+16.33 NEAR	pair bought within 13.9 s of bigvinegar9113.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	lorenzo18.near	95 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	+5.52 NEAR	pair bought within 17.1 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.3 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
18	syndi95.near	98 s · transaction	29.76 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.51 NEAR	pair bought within 38.8 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
19	579b7294974b54d…30203	98 s · transaction	14.00 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.18 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 11.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 18 more pairs · all pairs
20	teend.near	101 s · transaction	24.85 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	+5.08 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 7.8 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearizonai.near

None known.