It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (148 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 7.3 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 7.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +1511.08 NEAR · insiders' net result: +187.78 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 25% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 14:21:36 UTC · block 217497559 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-09 07:19 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-09 07:19 UTC
Price now
1.33x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.07x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
65 of 209 · 31.1%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 6 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
7.3%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
470.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
10
14
17
25
193
Buyers spent
382.95 NEAR
465.82 NEAR
485.82 NEAR
520.52 NEAR
8,476.96 NEAR
Buyers net result
+61.33 NEAR
+64.46 NEAR
+82.20 NEAR
+101.85 NEAR
+1,511.08 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
7.3%
Insiders' net result
+26.65 NEAR
+28.22 NEAR
+31.46 NEAR
+34.88 NEAR
+187.78 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.50x
1.66x
1.66x
1.66x
19.70x
Holders
11
9
12
21
252
Top 10 holders' share
100.0%
100%
99.8%
96.2%
53.2%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
3.9% · holds
3.9% · holds
3.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
4.2% · 4 of 4 hold
2.7% · 1 of 6 hold
2.7% · 1 of 6 hold
Other early buyers
17.1% · 5 of 6 hold
18.7% · 6 of 8 hold
21.3% · 16 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
21.3% · 10 wallets
21.4% · 14 wallets
24.0% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
74.8%
74.7%
72.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100.0%
100%
96.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100.0% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
96.2% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.