nearlock.v2-launchpad.j….near justhoot v2

nearlock.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (9f6d9c75c158a4402e643d9d3af2d5983c92eeba1d338fa49f25d588b86372b9) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 26 % (795 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Received tokens from the dev: nearlockfi.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: +104.29 NEAR · insiders' net result: +42.57 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 51% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-19 18:53:12 UTC · block 220695783 · history: launch only
Transaction7jbh1PmThAjdh…NsXW6
Creatordevnearlock.near explorer
Poolnearlock.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.87 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 19:15 UTC

17 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit40 25 of 63 outside buyers
Buy pressure0 buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 35.52 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak28 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity0 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-13 18:15 UTC
Price now1.07x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.28x the peak
Outside buyers in profit25 of 63 · 39.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 1 sells (35.52 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev2% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0.1% · 2 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)2644505163
Buyers spent552.34 NEAR1,122.81 NEAR1,315.38 NEAR1,325.60 NEAR1,469.13 NEAR
Buyers net result+232.79 NEAR+755.45 NEAR+802.71 NEAR+593.65 NEAR+104.29 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)12222
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+48.22 NEAR+76.15 NEAR+78.65 NEAR+69.19 NEAR+42.57 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.20x3.79x3.79x3.79x3.79x
Holders2338413522
Top 10 holders' share80.7%61.7%59.6%60.3%81.3%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — 2% · 1 of 1 hold 2% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 5.7% · 12 of 16 hold 5.8% · 12 of 16 hold 4.7% · 6 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 26.1% · 10 of 10 hold 30.4% · 14 of 14 hold 27.1% · 13 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)31.8% · 26 wallets36.2% · 30 wallets31.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)66.2%61.8%66.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)80.7%61.7%60.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder82.8% · 2 merged63.1% · 2 merged61.6% · 1 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 ro52.near 5 s · transaction 0.10 NEAR 35 s after buying · transaction -0.0048 NEAR
pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction +1.71 NEAR
pair bought within 5.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
3 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 5 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 46 s after buying · transaction +0.16 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
4 cockis.near 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +2.07 NEAR
pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 11 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR 13.6 min after buying · transaction +8.70 NEAR
pair bought within 5.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
6 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 16 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +1.81 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 5.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.8 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7 thickquery1928.near 41 s · transaction 39.60 NEAR 35.2 min after buying · transaction +80.12 NEAR none found
8 0b9e595fbd52e53…af62a 51 s · transaction 34.65 NEAR not sold +60.95 NEAR none found
9 alola.near 62 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +1.39 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 51.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 57.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 57.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 c1f98b21c3d6fcc…a565e 65 s · transaction 39.60 NEAR 34.8 min after buying · transaction +68.93 NEAR none found
11 yepyeo.near 73 s · transaction 49.50 NEAR not sold +69.61 NEAR none found
12 b7fea875a454f51…24509 103 s · transaction 39.34 NEAR 11.6 min after buying · transaction +9.58 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c3f8bfd9b2668a2…95e1a · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.4 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 c3f8bfd9b2668a2…95e1a 103 s · transaction 34.36 NEAR not sold +6.58 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b7fea875a454f51…24509 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 9f6d9c75c158a44…372b9 104 s · transaction 24.75 NEAR not sold +30.69 NEAR none found
15 km686.tg 105 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 106 s after buying · transaction +5.00 NEAR
pair bought within 7.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.2 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.7 s of h2onear.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 112 s · transaction 45.00 NEAR not sold +49.00 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 49.2 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.6 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17 goodegg4881.near 2.0 min · transaction 34.65 NEAR not sold +33.50 NEAR none found
18 keeptrying.near 2.1 min · transaction 44.55 NEAR not sold +38.13 NEAR none found
19 h2onear.near 2.3 min · transaction 6.50 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +2.13 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 25.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.7 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.9 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
20 ff8e584d8e7698c…db119 2.3 min · transaction 39.60 NEAR not sold +29.33 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of devnearlock.near

None known.