In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+50
2 of the 2 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator and 1 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 60%.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (796 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -271.59 NEAR · insiders' net result: +17.72 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 30% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-19 15:01:48 UTC · block 220672477 · history: launch only
13out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
28
28 of 99 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
24
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 13:50 UTC
Price now
1.09x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.24x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
28 of 99 · 28.3%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
2.5% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 7 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
24
37
44
55
95
Buyers spent
588.96 NEAR
957.47 NEAR
1,198.96 NEAR
1,447.56 NEAR
3,028.10 NEAR
Buyers net result
+288.28 NEAR
+571.00 NEAR
+321.86 NEAR
+302.96 NEAR
-271.59 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
2
2
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+47.45 NEAR
+61.74 NEAR
+51.13 NEAR
+50.75 NEAR
+17.72 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
2.40x
3.14x
3.14x
3.14x
4.53x
Holders
24
32
28
33
26
Top 10 holders' share
65.0%
58.8%
64.7%
63.3%
83.2%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
1.8% · holds
1.8% · holds
0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
1.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
3.0% · 5 of 6 hold
1.8% · 4 of 7 hold
0.1% · 2 of 7 hold
Other early buyers
30.9% · 18 of 18 hold
35.8% · 22 of 23 hold
37.3% · 18 of 23 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
33.8% · 24 wallets
37.6% · 30 wallets
37.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
64.3%
60.6%
60.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
65.0%
58.8%
63.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
65.0% · 1 merged
58.8% · 1 merged
63.3% · 0 merged
The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.