PEARLSB nearly.trade

pearlsb.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+25
Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): the creator account was created 6 min before the launch; it received 50.00 NEAR 5 min before the launch (largest transfer from intents.near).
Evidence: transaction 3v1Ho9yVxRtDD27vX…K56AL, transaction 4tJi4jeKC9eaxkQz1…VbPyu

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 47 % (581 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 9.05 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: spongebobpearl.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-03 16:38:29 UTC, 20.0 min after the launch: GgSg1DwrUc6wa…zj3ZN.
Outside buyers' net result: -9.05 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.48 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-11-03 16:18:28 UTC · block 222894132 · live
Transaction	6t82bQHXSq47P…MzGFz
Creator	spongebobpearl.near explorer
Pool	pearlsb.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-04 17:25 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-04 17:25 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.73x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	5 of 14 · 35.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	20.0 min	20.0 min	20.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	12	13	13	13	14
Buyers spent	146.23 NEAR	152.22 NEAR	152.22 NEAR	152.22 NEAR	153.22 NEAR
Buyers net result	+1.59 NEAR	-7.54 NEAR	-8.94 NEAR	-9.05 NEAR	-9.12 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+3.40 NEAR	+0.66 NEAR	-0.48 NEAR	-0.48 NEAR	-0.48 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x
Holders	10	6	2	1	1
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.3% · 9 of 12 hold	2.1% · 5 of 12 hold	1.5% · 1 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	—	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.3% · 12 wallets	2.1% · 13 wallets	1.5% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	91.9%	96.0%	98.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2	dolph.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	18.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	11.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.46 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.26 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
5	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
6	56c9a6ef438223b….near	31 s · transaction	54.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	+3.47 NEAR	pair bought within 27.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	40 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.59 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 16.7 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	franky.user.int….near	44 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	not sold	-4.03 NEAR	pair bought within 40.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.9 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	2a7f31817cd7531…aa3ba	44 s · transaction	9.94 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	pair bought within 13.0 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	57 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.25 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 53.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	ab2295f07e95ecb…8fa65	109 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	12.5 min after buying · transaction	-3.20 NEAR	pair bought within 52.3 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.7 s of phbo.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	phbo.near	2.4 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.08 NEAR	pair bought within 31.7 s of ab2295f07e95ecb…8fa65 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	fastest.user.in….near	9.0 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of spongebobpearl.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-11-03 16:36 UTC	nearly.trade	pearly.nearlytrade.near	0 Low retro	no rug	live