penguin-3.v2-launchpad.….near justhoot v2

penguin-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 32 % (692 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -2.33 NEAR · insiders' net result: +43.34 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 68% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-22 16:30:12 UTC · block 221116428 · history: launch only
TransactionGBw2QETMcL2vR…EU41r
Creatorpenguinon.near explorer
Poolpenguin-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.87 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 06:57 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-06 06:57 UTC
Price now0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.36x the peak
Outside buyers in profit27 of 116 · 23.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 19 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)29607481116
Buyers spent330.46 NEAR980.72 NEAR1,264.07 NEAR1,452.96 NEAR2,011.10 NEAR
Buyers net result+84.74 NEAR+73.66 NEAR+104.53 NEAR+45.12 NEAR-2.33 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+37.20 NEAR+39.89 NEAR+44.00 NEAR+40.67 NEAR+43.34 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.70x2.73x2.73x2.73x2.73x
Holders2737414354
Top 10 holders' share86.3%67.8%73.0%66.5%74.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2% · holds 2% · holds 2.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 14.1% · 16 of 19 hold 6.9% · 10 of 19 hold 4.1% · 7 of 19 hold
Other early buyers 8.1% · 10 of 10 hold 4.4% · 7 of 11 hold 4.7% · 6 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)22.2% · 29 wallets11.3% · 30 wallets8.9% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)75.8%86.7%88.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)86.3%67.8%66.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder87.2% · 2 merged67.8% · 2 merged66.5% · 2 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 20.4 min after buying · transaction +0.85 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
2 tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet 5 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 62 s after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of cockis.near · 157 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
3 jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 10.4 min after buying · transaction +1.28 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 146 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
4 cockis.near 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.78 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 157 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5 onlyrekt.near 6 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 48 s after buying · transaction -0.10 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 82 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
6 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 6 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 58 s after buying · transaction -0.07 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
7 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 15 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 7.7 min after buying · transaction +0.96 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 10.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.8 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 96 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8 brave-owl-35.se….near trading bot wallet 40 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR 9.9 min after buying · transaction +5.69 NEAR
pair bought within 10.3 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 alola.near 50 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +0.97 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 44.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 44.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 3e5f029edb67f02…4bd45 51 s · transaction 0.20 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction +0.13 NEAR
pair bought within 1.3 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.7 s of cockis.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 rakhapf.tg 63 s · transaction 20.10 NEAR not sold +14.36 NEAR none found
12 natasyaarut-hot.tg 97 s · transaction 20.54 NEAR not sold +13.60 NEAR none found
13 memetoken.near 2.2 min · transaction 12.44 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction -0.36 NEAR none found
14 80289da0a50f047…d6989 2.8 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction +38.94 NEAR
pair bought within 15.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 3.0 min · transaction 45.00 NEAR 11.4 min after buying · transaction +20.42 NEAR
pair bought within 48.1 s of js1112s.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.8 s of phbo.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.5 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16 phbo.near 3.1 min · transaction 6.00 NEAR 17.2 min after buying · transaction +2.63 NEAR
pair bought within 4.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.3 s of js1112s.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.3 s of km686.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 km686.tg 3.2 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR 11.0 min after buying · transaction +24.26 NEAR
pair bought within 9.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.3 s of phbo.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 creepy_degen.us….near 3.3 min · transaction 55.06 NEAR 11.2 min after buying · transaction -1.01 NEAR none found
19 congos.tg 3.4 min · transaction 5.01 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction +2.76 NEAR none found
20 darksysteme.tg 3.4 min · transaction 7.60 NEAR not sold +1.05 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of penguinon.near

None known.