penguinonn.v2-launchpad….near justhoot v2

penguinonn.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (810 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -54.57 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 44% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-19 12:54:02 UTC · block 220659614 · history: launch only
Transaction	GiiM3hDHqKmik…XSPiE
Creator	penguin_on_near.near explorer
Pool	penguinonn.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-31 02:08 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-31 02:08 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.43x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	13 of 48 · 27.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	20	43	47	47	48
Buyers spent	477.64 NEAR	966.88 NEAR	1,082.97 NEAR	1,093.77 NEAR	1,113.77 NEAR
Buyers net result	+176.09 NEAR	-11.51 NEAR	-49.94 NEAR	-52.54 NEAR	-54.57 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.03x	2.27x	2.27x	2.27x	2.27x
Holders	19	18	7	5	1
Top 10 holders' share	94.1%	91.9%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	21.5% · 10 of 11 hold	0.5% · 1 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	7.9% · 9 of 9 hold	7.5% · 7 of 19 hold	0% · 0 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	29.4% · 20 wallets	8.1% · 30 wallets	0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	70.6%	91.9%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	94.1%	91.9%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	95.5% · 1 merged	91.9% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ro52.near	7 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+8.54 NEAR	pair bought within 20.4 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.2 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	24 s · transaction	10.01 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+8.05 NEAR	pair bought within 4.2 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.2 s of ro52.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.5 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	28 s · transaction	160.15 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+83.93 NEAR	pair bought within 4.2 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.4 s of ro52.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.3 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	5807dd1bbba54c9….near	33 s · transaction	96.00 NEAR	5.7 min after buying · transaction	-13.16 NEAR	pair bought within 5.3 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.5 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	9ce82f7c55c2f64….near	49 s · transaction	60.00 NEAR	13.4 min after buying · transaction	+8.47 NEAR	none found
6	3e5f029edb67f02…4bd45	92 s · transaction	12.01 NEAR	12.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.59 NEAR	pair bought within 47.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	hellopeace.near	93 s · transaction	17.20 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	+2.95 NEAR	pair bought within 46.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	km686.tg	2.1 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.54 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 42.2 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.0 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	6c1ec4cd41ec0b5…342f5	2.2 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	14.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.47 NEAR	none found
10	e8a162641a55288…58210	2.3 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.90 NEAR	pair bought within 8.4 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.9 s of hellopeace.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.3 s of 3e5f029edb67f02…4bd45 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	2.5 min · transaction	6.93 NEAR	101 s after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 8.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.0 s of km686.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	hungcoiiii1.near	2.8 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.38 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 42.2 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.4 s of ab2295f07e95ecb…8fa65 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	jakeronthia.near	2.9 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	12.1 min after buying · transaction	-1.11 NEAR	none found
14	5d8f34a3434e2ec…d9c57	3.2 min · transaction	6.01 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.96 NEAR	none found
15	34a5cb274a65051…58f1e	3.3 min · transaction	0.69 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0033 NEAR	none found
16	tarbiaa.near	3.5 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	8.7 min after buying · transaction	+1.28 NEAR	none found
17	ab2295f07e95ecb…8fa65	3.8 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	13.0 min after buying · transaction	-3.60 NEAR	pair bought within 59.4 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	ralfrudolf.near	4.1 min · transaction	16.96 NEAR	43.5 min after buying · transaction	-8.42 NEAR	none found
19	i12345678910111…19.tg	4.5 min · transaction	0.22 NEAR	14.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	none found
20	metallic_snowma….near	4.6 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	+0.26 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of penguin_on_near.near

None known.