Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 21:23:37 UTC, 12.8 min after the launch: Ar8mMbWMYCDEB…d4jY2.
Outside buyers' net result: -62.72 NEAR · insiders' net result: +23.24 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 32% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 21:10:48 UTC · block 217538878 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 19:20 UTC
20out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
42
125 of 299 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
36
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 14:19 UTC
Price now
3.89x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.36x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
125 of 299 · 41.8%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
2.0% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.0% · 1 of 10 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
100%
100%
116.8%
140.1%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
12.8 min
12.8 min
12.8 min
12.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
17
44
60
72
74
Buyers spent
232.02 NEAR
824.78 NEAR
1,286.05 NEAR
1,628.01 NEAR
1,702.19 NEAR
Buyers net result
+46.65 NEAR
+407.22 NEAR
+203.09 NEAR
+401.86 NEAR
-62.72 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
100%
100%
116.8%
140.1%
Insiders' net result
+5.33 NEAR
+15.33 NEAR
+15.33 NEAR
+18.83 NEAR
+23.24 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.46x
2.63x
3.67x
3.67x
3.67x
Holders
19
41
33
38
16
Top 10 holders' share
92.1%
61.9%
75.9%
70.3%
98.5%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
1.0% · holds
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
1.8% · 1 of 1 hold
1.8% · 1 of 1 hold
1% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
3.3% · 5 of 5 hold
7.1% · 7 of 10 hold
0.1% · 1 of 10 hold
Other early buyers
12.7% · 11 of 11 hold
22.1% · 19 of 19 hold
15.2% · 10 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
17.8% · 17 wallets
31.0% · 30 wallets
16.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
81.1%
69.0%
83.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
92.1%
61.9%
70.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
92.1% · 0 merged
61.9% · 0 merged
70.3% · 0 merged
The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.