POD nearly.trade

pod-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+5
The name 'pod' was already used 16.4 h earlier by another creator (pod.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch pod.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2736 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 17.28 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 102.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: pokemondegen.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-11 03:31:02 UTC, 7.1 min after the launch: EDKu6wpoxLzky…mYFVA.
Outside buyers' net result: -17.28 NEAR · insiders' net result: +11.49 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-11 03:23:57 UTC · block 219468431 · history: launch only
Transaction	9XsLzVgCCjN6o…6A2ZF
Creator	pokemondegen.near explorer
Pool	pod-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	42.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-11 10:03 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	102.0%	102.0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	7.1 min	7.1 min	7.1 min	7.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	14	16	16	16	16
Buyers spent	115.84 NEAR	155.53 NEAR	155.53 NEAR	155.53 NEAR	155.53 NEAR
Buyers net result	+10.42 NEAR	-14.70 NEAR	-16.40 NEAR	-17.28 NEAR	-17.34 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	102.0%	102.0%
Insiders' net result	+10.79 NEAR	+10.67 NEAR	+10.67 NEAR	+11.49 NEAR	+11.49 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.22x	1.31x	1.31x	1.31x	1.31x
Holders	15	5	4	6	4
Top 10 holders' share	91.8%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.9% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.5% · 11 of 11 hold	2.2% · 2 of 12 hold	1.7% · 1 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	2.8% · 3 of 3 hold	2.6% · 3 of 4 hold	0.1% · 2 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	9.3% · 14 wallets	4.8% · 16 wallets	1.9% · 16 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	86.8%	95.2%	98.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	91.8%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 16 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	7 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	10.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0097 NEAR	pair bought within 13.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	9 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.71 NEAR	pair bought within 2.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 30 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	11 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	36.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	pair bought within 4.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 30 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	20 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	12.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	pair bought within 13.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.4 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.7 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	iagipero.near	83 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	24.6 min after buying · transaction	-3.50 NEAR	none found
6	sonic-hawk-6039….near	116 s · transaction	2.46 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	none found
7	beenhere.near	3.1 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.33 NEAR	none found
8	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.45 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	94feda709c301ed…63090	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.71 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.72 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.64 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	4.7 min · transaction	7.55 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.64 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
15	i12345678910111…19.tg	5.2 min · transaction	0.09 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	none found
16	satirexxx.near	5.5 min · transaction	39.60 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-7.72 NEAR	pair bought within 48.3 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pokemondegen.near

None known.