pon-161d58.launchpad.ju….near justhoot v1

pon-161d58.launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 26 % (802 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -23.77 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 45% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-19 09:58:06 UTC · block 220641967 · history: launch only
Transaction	43kob9FxqiJGE…gVEVh
Creator	penguinnear.near explorer
Pool	pon-161d58.launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-20 06:58 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	35	53	59	60	61
Buyers spent	641.87 NEAR	842.34 NEAR	1,083.47 NEAR	1,096.34 NEAR	1,116.36 NEAR
Buyers net result	+125.26 NEAR	+196.83 NEAR	+33.02 NEAR	-21.93 NEAR	-23.77 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.89x	2.26x	2.26x	2.26x	2.26x
Holders	30	46	37	12	2
Top 10 holders' share	80.8%	65.8%	77.8%	99.0%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	13.5% · 16 of 20 hold	12.8% · 15 of 20 hold	0.8% · 5 of 20 hold
Other early buyers	10.2% · 10 of 10 hold	8.0% · 9 of 10 hold	1.9% · 3 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	23.7% · 30 wallets	20.9% · 30 wallets	2.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	76.3%	79.1%	97.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	80.8%	65.8%	99.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	81.5% · 2 merged	66.3% · 2 merged	99.6% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	1 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	1 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	44.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.29 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	cockis.near	1 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4	ro52.near	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	75 s after buying · transaction	+0.66 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	24.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.66 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
6	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	11 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.31 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 8.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.5 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	24 s · transaction	14.86 NEAR	68 s after buying · transaction	+4.64 NEAR	pair bought within 7.9 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
8	heyyyyyyy.user.….near	31 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	57.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 28.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	32 s · transaction	118.86 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+38.37 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches pair bought within 9.4 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	41 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	19.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 38.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
11	js1112s.near	49 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+2.13 NEAR	pair bought within 46.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.5 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
12	e8a162641a55288…58210	51 s · transaction	23.00 NEAR	14.6 min after buying · transaction	+2.64 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 48.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.2 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
13	7b0y.near	66 s · transaction	80.00 NEAR	14.2 min after buying · transaction	+23.04 NEAR	pair bought within 25.3 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	5807dd1bbba54c9….near	78 s · transaction	66.00 NEAR	42 s after buying · transaction	+5.21 NEAR	pair bought within 37.1 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
15	stonkfun.near	87 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	17.1 min after buying · transaction	+1.88 NEAR	pair bought within 46.0 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	ironborn.user.i….near	103 s · transaction	24.75 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.60 NEAR	none found
17	25510828e36a7d4…e374e	105 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	35.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.35 NEAR	none found
18	mev.user.intear.near	2.0 min · transaction	28.03 NEAR	24.8 min after buying · transaction	-2.41 NEAR	none found
19	darkoasis5043.near	2.0 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+1.23 NEAR	pair bought within 59.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	trueroom9384.near	2.1 min · transaction	100.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+3.69 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of penguinnear.near

None known.