ponzi.nearlytrade.near
Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.
Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
No risk signal fired for this launch.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 36 % (728 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 7.03 NEAR.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
| Launched | 2026-10-23 17:03:05 UTC · block 221266396 · history: launch only |
|---|---|
| Transaction | 2JGnP4FnNRpHU…NU6h4 |
| Creator | ponzinear.near explorer |
| Pool | ponzi.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000 |
| Dev buy | 42.00 NEAR |
| Tax options | buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00% |
Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.
This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.
| Last trade | 2026-10-23 17:53 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data) |
|---|---|
| Last 15 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Last 60 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Buyers in the last hour | 0 · no trade seen in our live data |
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
| Metric | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+30 min | T+60 min | T+24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired) | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Dev's first sell after launch | 95 s | 95 s | 95 s | 95 s | 95 s |
| Buyers (other than the insiders) | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Buyers spent | 60.16 NEAR | 60.16 NEAR | 60.16 NEAR | 60.16 NEAR | 60.16 NEAR |
| Buyers net result | -6.98 NEAR | -7.01 NEAR | -7.01 NEAR | -7.03 NEAR | -7.03 NEAR |
| Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Insiders sold (share of what they acquired) | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Insiders' net result | +2.35 NEAR | +2.35 NEAR | +2.35 NEAR | +2.35 NEAR | +2.35 NEAR |
| Highest price vs first buyer | 1.21x | 1.21x | 1.21x | 1.21x | 1.21x |
| Holders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Top 10 holders' share | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — |
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
| Holder | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dev account | 0% · holds nothing | 0% · holds nothing | 0% · holds nothing |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — | — | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 0.1% · 1 of 9 hold | 0.1% · 1 of 9 hold | 0% · 0 of 9 hold |
| Other early buyers | — | — | — |
| All early buyers (the six rows above) | 0.1% · 9 wallets | 0.1% · 9 wallets | 0% · 9 wallets |
| Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers) | 99.9% | 99.9% | 100% |
| Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets) | 100% | 100% | — |
| Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder | 100% · 1 merged | 100% · 1 merged | — |
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
| # | Wallet | After the launch | Spent | First sell | Net result at T+60 | Links (recorded transfers and trades) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 0.50 NEAR | 63 s after buying · transaction | +0.07 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 2 | wrapz-z.near independent_sniper | 3 s · transaction | 3.00 NEAR | 94 s after buying · transaction | -0.21 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 3 | jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 62 s after buying · transaction | +0.05 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 4 | b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 96 s after buying · transaction | -0.08 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 5 | c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 93 s after buying · transaction | -0.07 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 6 | bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 2.00 NEAR | 94 s after buying · transaction | -0.15 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 7 | 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 | 4 s · transaction | 20.66 NEAR | 92 s after buying · transaction | -1.54 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 8 | d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 | 25 s · transaction | 30.00 NEAR | 82 s after buying · transaction | -4.89 NEAR |
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 9 | alola.near | 34 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 30.2 min after buying · transaction | -0.21 NEAR |
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
|
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.
None known.