In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
No risk signal fired for this launch.
The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (859 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 71 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 425.6% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 15:01:04 UTC, 283.9 min after the launch: 56RJJRZaa3EQY…wSFqP.
Outside buyers' net result: -35.22 NEAR · insiders' net result: +18.59 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 71% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-16 10:17:08 UTC · block 220209726 · history: launch only
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-25 10:08 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-25 10:08 UTC
Price now
0.92x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.64x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
4 of 25 · 16%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
4.0% · 1 of 4 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
0%
0%
425.6%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
283.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
7
9
14
22
24
Buyers spent
130.81 NEAR
142.81 NEAR
202.17 NEAR
258.76 NEAR
303.71 NEAR
Buyers net result
+0.53 NEAR
-5.23 NEAR
+3.64 NEAR
-9.37 NEAR
-35.22 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
0%
0%
425.6%
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
+0.38 NEAR
+0.09 NEAR
+18.59 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.19x
1.19x
1.29x
1.42x
1.42x
Holders
7
6
11
14
8
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
99.0%
97.3%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
5.1% · 3 of 4 hold
4.2% · 2 of 4 hold
4.2% · 2 of 4 hold
Other early buyers
3.8% · 3 of 3 hold
2.5% · 3 of 5 hold
4.7% · 11 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
8.9% · 7 wallets
6.7% · 9 wallets
9.0% · 22 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
91.1%
93.3%
90.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
97.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
97.3% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.