pumpkin.v2-launchpad.ju….near justhoot v2

pumpkin.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (3ab30e9ce2099d06fc0e119965f1dc36d8d74b7b35feb96e1e0e68de2a7c3804) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (797 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -20.52 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 56% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-19 15:13:12 UTC · block 220673615 · history: launch only
Transaction	Exd8rsQqqQcvT…Hm4PE
Creator	pumpkinn.near explorer
Pool	pumpkin.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-31 02:06 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-31 02:06 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.55x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	6 of 29 · 20.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.3% · 2 of 21 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	26	27	27	27	28
Buyers spent	437.29 NEAR	458.78 NEAR	458.78 NEAR	458.78 NEAR	461.20 NEAR
Buyers net result	-5.46 NEAR	-19.51 NEAR	-19.76 NEAR	-20.23 NEAR	-20.52 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.80x	1.80x	1.80x	1.80x	1.80x
Holders	10	5	3	2	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	9.3% · 9 of 21 hold	4.7% · 6 of 21 hold	4.4% · 4 of 21 hold
Other early buyers	1.2% · 2 of 5 hold	0.1% · 1 of 6 hold	0% · 0 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	10.5% · 26 wallets	4.8% · 27 wallets	4.4% · 27 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	89.5%	95.2%	95.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 3 merged	100% · 3 merged	100% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.27 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0071 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	cockis.near	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.01 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of ro52.near · 94 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	ro52.near	8 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+6.92 NEAR	pair bought within 2.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 96 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	23 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.24 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 17.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.8 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.0 s of ro52.near · 96 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	28 s · transaction	122.16 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+37.96 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches pair bought within 22.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.9 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	beenhere.near	47 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 42.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.1 s of alola.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	3e5f029edb67f02…4bd45	48 s · transaction	10.18 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 11.0 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.9 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.7 s of cockis.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	59 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.24 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 54.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
10	buyitall.near	75 s · transaction	140.00 NEAR	22 s after buying · transaction	-18.78 NEAR	pair bought within 15.1 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.5 s of h2onear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	aranzimaxxing.u….near	75 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.16 NEAR	pair bought within 15.5 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	e8a162641a55288…58210	83 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-2.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 59.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.1 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
13	sixways.near	91 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.38 NEAR	pair bought within 31.9 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.7 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	1e3e1c83ce489cb…33345	91 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	11.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.64 NEAR	pair bought within 8.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.7 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	futureis.user.i….near	94 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-1.85 NEAR	pair bought within 34.8 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.8 s of h2onear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	h2onear.near	102 s · transaction	2.30 NEAR	43.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.67 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 42.6 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.0 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.2 s of darkoasis5043.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
17	0aec2da507e7346…7ddf3	109 s · transaction	1.19 NEAR	88 s after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	none found
18	jehoti.near	2.0 min · transaction	1.69 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.24 NEAR	none found
19	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	2.0 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-6.01 NEAR	pair bought within 39.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.5 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	2.5 min · transaction	7.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.21 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 47.0 s of h2onear.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of darkoasis5043.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of telerman.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of pumpkinn.near

None known.