QCANARY nearly.trade

qcanary.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2679 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 76% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-08 10:15:55 UTC · block 219070336 · history: launch only
Transaction	5g9V3jRvZ49z3…ZvrEu
Creator	qcanary.near explorer
Pool	qcanary.nearlytrade.near\|qtc.omft.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-08 23:48 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	19	21	25	27	28
Buyers spent	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.36x	1.57x	1.88x	1.88x	1.88x
Holders	8	9	13	14	11
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	87.9%	99.6%	100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 10 hold	0% · 0 of 10 hold	0% · 0 of 10 hold
Other early buyers	14.7% · 8 of 9 hold	19.9% · 9 of 11 hold	22.0% · 11 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	14.7% · 19 wallets	19.9% · 21 wallets	22.0% · 27 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	85.3%	80.1%	78.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	99.6%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	99.6% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	22 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	22 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	22 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	23 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	23 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	23 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	23 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	d0tz.near	24 s · transaction	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
9	94feda709c301ed…63090	24 s · transaction	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	80289da0a50f047…d6989	50 s · transaction	82 s after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 27.4 s of bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.9 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.1 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
11	lowpant8440.near	54 s · transaction	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 29.6 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	2.8 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
13	1d320e704741a1c…47e72	3.2 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
14	0c16cd56b436292…c7df3	4.6 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
15	af610e8b5033f99…eeca3	4.6 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
16	7ec445ce847d578…dc502	4.6 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
17	addd02d7c344335…6bb08	4.6 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
18	ef25bfdf988887b…d4c51	4.7 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
19	irene.user.intear.near	4.8 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
20	rekttin.near	5.0 min · transaction	41.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of qcanary.near

None known.