QLS nearly.trade

qls.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (72922668f5f3b71512cf49e0ee5ff0ab65f7d4358f497fbf062d213e2f73caff) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2680 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 75 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: diablo6.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-08 12:34:21 UTC, 162.7 min after the launch: 2oW6ZuiuRMVau…9T5iq.
Outside buyers' net result: -6.78 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 75% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-08 09:51:39 UTC · block 219067846 · history: launch only
Transaction	7ZS9YQ6dhQmgo…9jzNF
Creator	diablo6.near explorer
Pool	qls.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	5.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-08 12:34 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	162.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	14	14	14	14	14
Buyers spent	204.14 NEAR	204.14 NEAR	204.14 NEAR	204.14 NEAR	204.14 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.93 NEAR	-6.19 NEAR	-6.58 NEAR	-6.67 NEAR	-6.78 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Insiders' net result	+0.35 NEAR	+0.20 NEAR	+0.10 NEAR	+0.08 NEAR	+0.0020 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.33x	1.33x	1.33x	1.33x	1.33x
Holders	4	3	6	5	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.5% · holds	0.5% · holds	0.5% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	3.4% · 3 of 12 hold	1.9% · 2 of 12 hold	1.9% · 1 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	0% · 0 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	3.4% · 14 wallets	1.9% · 14 wallets	1.9% · 14 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	96.1%	97.6%	97.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 14 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	9 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.15 NEAR	pair bought within 17.5 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	94feda709c301ed…63090	16 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.43 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
3	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	16 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+0.88 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
4	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	16 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.53 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
5	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	16 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
6	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	16 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	17 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0004 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	18 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	114 s after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 1.1 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
9	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	18 s · transaction	7.48 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.40 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 1.1 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	26 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 10.1 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.7 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11	80289da0a50f047…d6989	43 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	69 s after buying · transaction	+2.60 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 16.7 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.7 s of bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	52 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	6.3 min after buying · transaction	-4.13 NEAR	pair bought within 25.9 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
13	6a5f652a25a04a2…53d1e	90 s · transaction	34.65 NEAR	26 s after buying · transaction	-3.17 NEAR	none found
14	68eb3275959923a…bedb6	116 s · transaction	18.66 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-3.44 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of diablo6.near

None known.