RAVEN nearly.trade

raven.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (buddhadefi-hot.tg) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (820 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -71.11 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 50% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-18 14:32:06 UTC · block 220524702 · history: launch only
Transaction	H8bZS48JZc4Ef…CCZim
Creator	ram_ram_ramm-hot2.tg explorer
Pool	raven.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	32.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-11 15:44 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.41x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	13 of 72 · 18.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.1% · 3 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	21	27	42	48	53
Buyers spent	256.93 NEAR	397.56 NEAR	689.47 NEAR	847.91 NEAR	900.75 NEAR
Buyers net result	+59.75 NEAR	+70.13 NEAR	+55.67 NEAR	-46.08 NEAR	-71.11 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+18.23 NEAR	+20.51 NEAR	+22.49 NEAR	+9.78 NEAR	+4.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.64x	1.78x	2.43x	2.43x	2.43x
Holders	20	19	28	25	15
Top 10 holders' share	90.1%	90.6%	81.5%	87.4%	99.4%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.0% · holds	3.0% · holds	3.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	12.6% · 10 of 12 hold	11.6% · 6 of 12 hold	7.9% · 6 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	5.9% · 9 of 9 hold	9.8% · 12 of 15 hold	4.2% · 8 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	18.5% · 21 wallets	21.4% · 27 wallets	12.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	78.5%	75.6%	84.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	90.1%	90.6%	87.4%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	91.1% · 1 merged	90.6% · 1 merged	87.4% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ro52.near	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.49 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	28 s after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer	3 s · transaction	11.00 NEAR	13.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.00 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	13.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.46 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	20.97 NEAR	21.6 min after buying · transaction	+13.63 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	sneaky_jambolog….near	20 s · transaction	11.88 NEAR	not sold	+2.41 NEAR	pair bought within 16.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	cyber_processor….near	24 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-1.15 NEAR	pair bought within 20.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.2 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	js1112s.near	54 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.79 NEAR	pair bought within 50.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.9 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	e6c7530c5a35f51…93976	64 s · transaction	11.29 NEAR	not sold	+0.36 NEAR	none found
10	alola.near	65 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	27.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.70 NEAR	pair bought within 10.9 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.2 s of cyber_processor….near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.8 s of telerman.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11	telerman.near	82 s · transaction	65.00 NEAR	not sold	+6.26 NEAR	pair bought within 16.8 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	82e43c037639b7c…51efd	82 s · transaction	10.64 NEAR	not sold	+0.28 NEAR	none found
13	b975b16ffaaf31f…72057	2.3 min · transaction	10.64 NEAR	not sold	+0.09 NEAR	none found
14	af25cc6d65f5e60…1097a	2.3 min · transaction	1.92 NEAR	not sold	-0.0043 NEAR	none found
15	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	2.5 min · transaction	2.97 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.46 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 10.8 s of rekttin.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	rekttin.near	2.6 min · transaction	149.40 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.83 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 10.8 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	stranger.user.i….near	2.7 min · transaction	32.67 NEAR	36.1 min after buying · transaction	-4.40 NEAR	none found
18	gracychen11.near	2.9 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	10.3 min after buying · transaction	-3.24 NEAR	none found
19	barrey.near	3.7 min · transaction	13.36 NEAR	35.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.42 NEAR	none found
20	e5fea475b1c2395…e15e6	4.1 min · transaction	73.10 NEAR	11.8 min after buying · transaction	-5.88 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of ram_ram_ramm-hot2.tg

None known.