The largest funder's (72922668f5f3b71512cf49e0ee5ff0ab65f7d4358f497fbf062d213e2f73caff) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (143 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 56 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 128.6% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 22:45:15 UTC, 727.0 min after the launch: 8aA25NX8yJX6b…ZpNbC.
Outside buyers' net result: +174.68 NEAR · insiders' net result: +20.61 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 56% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 10:38:12 UTC · block 217474925 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-27 21:44 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-27 21:44 UTC
Price now
1.01x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.26x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
19 of 56 · 33.9%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.3% · 1 of 9 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
128.6%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
727.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
1
23
30
32
54
Buyers spent
20.00 NEAR
794.36 NEAR
878.81 NEAR
952.05 NEAR
2,004.81 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.20 NEAR
+512.34 NEAR
+633.21 NEAR
+251.98 NEAR
+174.68 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
128.6%
Insiders' net result
+0.19 NEAR
+19.30 NEAR
+22.06 NEAR
+12.91 NEAR
+20.61 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.00x
2.88x
3.15x
3.17x
3.91x
Holders
3
25
33
28
32
Top 10 holders' share
100%
66.7%
59.8%
70.0%
74.2%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.9% · holds
0.9% · holds
0.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
19.6% · 7 of 7 hold
17.9% · 9 of 9 hold
Other early buyers
1.8% · 1 of 1 hold
21.2% · 16 of 16 hold
15.3% · 13 of 21 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
1.8% · 1 wallets
40.8% · 23 wallets
33.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
97.2%
58.3%
65.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
66.7%
70.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
80.2% · 2 merged
84.6% · 2 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.