SIGHT nearly.trade

sight.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (25ab96ddd0d9a8e0ab48b45c2ef7473a83c4ff7e49239b46613b3d688e024731) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 6 % (767 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 38.3 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 38.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: router.nearsighttrade.near (recipient), nearsighttrade.near (dev).
Received tokens from the dev: router.nearsighttrade.near.
Outside buyers' net result: -122.27 NEAR · insiders' net result: +13.46 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 32% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 02:24:54 UTC · block 217716389 · history: launch only
Transaction	86uunAK1dWjpo…k9ACk
Creator	nearsighttrade.near explorer
Pool	sight.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-02 04:01 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-02 04:01 UTC
Price now	0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.15x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	61 of 217 · 28.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 13 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	44.9 min	44.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	15	17	17	41	208
Buyers spent	256.45 NEAR	258.95 NEAR	258.95 NEAR	1,137.33 NEAR	6,652.36 NEAR
Buyers net result	+2.01 NEAR	-11.09 NEAR	-11.34 NEAR	+331.66 NEAR	-122.27 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	38.3%
Insiders' net result	+9.20 NEAR	-0.06 NEAR	-0.70 NEAR	+79.14 NEAR	+13.46 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.38x	1.38x	1.38x	2.54x	6.09x
Holders	9	6	5	36	61
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	66.2%	79.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	4.3% · holds	4.3% · holds	4.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.3% · 2 of 10 hold	0.1% · 1 of 10 hold	8.1% · 7 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	3.6% · 5 of 5 hold	0.8% · 3 of 7 hold	16.9% · 14 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	7.9% · 15 wallets	0.9% · 17 wallets	25.0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	87.8%	94.8%	70.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	66.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	76.8% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	oyennn.near	38 s · transaction	99.25 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+10.36 NEAR	pair bought within 16.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.8 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	41 s · transaction	79.71 NEAR	101 s after buying · transaction	+31.28 NEAR	pair bought within 11.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	41 s · transaction	62.42 NEAR	95 s after buying · transaction	+29.71 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 11.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	52 s · transaction	41.00 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	+8.22 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	52 s · transaction	41.00 NEAR	84 s after buying · transaction	+10.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	52 s · transaction	75.62 NEAR	94 s after buying · transaction	+27.05 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	e8a162641a55288…58210	54 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 8.5 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	alola.near	63 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 8.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	lambadaa.near	71 s · transaction	39.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+16.50 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 8.6 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.9 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	supremegay.near	84 s · transaction	38.80 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-3.93 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 21.8 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
11	missoralways.near	102 s · transaction	60.00 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	+18.08 NEAR	none found
12	eeeb3e53f579ab2…f3428	2.4 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.77 NEAR	none found
13	997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1	2.5 min · transaction	15.92 NEAR	18.5 min after buying · transaction	+8.56 NEAR	none found
14	6adf1sh.near	2.9 min · transaction	11.55 NEAR	8.3 min after buying · transaction	+4.98 NEAR	none found
15	locnload.near	3.4 min · transaction	9.00 NEAR	29.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	none found
16	fd5d0496ea66143…62b15	6.0 min · transaction	0.49 NEAR	15 s after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	none found
17	qweqeq.near	9.3 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	+2.86 NEAR	none found
18	a10a8eb70e7f1d6…f9b0b	36.9 min · transaction	24.75 NEAR	not sold	+27.38 NEAR	none found
19	adefajar.tg	37.8 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	+2.08 NEAR	none found
20	366d7bbb8979583…b31f0	41.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.86 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearsighttrade.near

None known.