SINCAT nearly.trade

sincat.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 6 % (480 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: +4.41 NEAR · insiders' net result: +29.55 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 79% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 19:15:54 UTC · block 217673037 · history: launch only
TransactionChdjpPpRnasrS…zwZ1q
Creatorvolat.near explorer
Poolsincat.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy40.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-12 00:13 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-12 00:13 UTC
Price now0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.51x the peak
Outside buyers in profit9 of 38 · 23.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 10 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1723242537
Buyers spent203.19 NEAR337.14 NEAR344.14 NEAR345.14 NEAR507.93 NEAR
Buyers net result+16.47 NEAR+1.59 NEAR-12.81 NEAR-12.96 NEAR+4.41 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+13.26 NEAR+10.17 NEAR+1.87 NEAR+1.59 NEAR+29.55 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.33x1.33x1.33x1.33x1.78x
Holders14188815
Top 10 holders' share99.3%95.3%100%100%100.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.7% · holds 3.7% · holds 3.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 3.1% · 6 of 10 hold 2.0% · 5 of 10 hold 0.1% · 1 of 10 hold
Other early buyers 8.4% · 6 of 7 hold 7.3% · 11 of 13 hold 1.1% · 3 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)11.4% · 17 wallets9.3% · 23 wallets1.2% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)84.8%87.0%95.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.3%95.3%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.4% · 1 merged95.5% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 equalharbor5773.near 39 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 21.6 min after buying · transaction +0.40 NEAR none found
2 7ce0a3e28d6a9e6…f6633 62 s · transaction 59.70 NEAR 4.6 min after buying · transaction +4.82 NEAR none found
3 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d 89 s · transaction 9.95 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction +0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 19.2 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 108 s · transaction 0.20 NEAR 4.6 min after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 19.2 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.5 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 fullestate9851.near 118 s · transaction 12.94 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR none found
6 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 2.0 min · transaction 90.00 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction -7.22 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches
pair bought within 18.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.7 s of 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.5 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 sessssssssss.near 2.4 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 105 s after buying · transaction +0.23 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 44.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.6 s of 8892f9d61bc0e42…aef18 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8 herthegreat.near 2.5 min · transaction 1.20 NEAR 18.6 min after buying · transaction -0.18 NEAR none found
9 ruggerino.near 2.9 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold -0.39 NEAR
pair bought within 32.6 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 3.0 min · transaction 6.97 NEAR 87 s after buying · transaction -0.06 NEAR
pair bought within 7.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
11 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 3.1 min · transaction 0.30 NEAR 31.4 min after buying · transaction -0.07 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 44.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.0 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.2 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 adefajar.tg 3.1 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 22.6 min after buying · transaction -0.22 NEAR
pair bought within 20.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 modernhare352.near 3.2 min · transaction 12.00 NEAR 16.7 min after buying · transaction -1.63 NEAR none found
14 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 3.5 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 46 s after buying · transaction -1.17 NEAR
pair bought within 23.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.7 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.7 s of adefajar.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
15 barrey.near 4.3 min · transaction 2.98 NEAR 68 s after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
pair bought within 53.7 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 someonetobeloved.near 4.6 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR 15.5 min after buying · transaction -3.22 NEAR none found
17 bc54559425f4e1a…f574b 5.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 39.9 min after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR none found
18 lambadaa.near 6.2 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 12.8 min after buying · transaction +0.36 NEAR none found
19 i1005990107.tg 6.8 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.46 NEAR none found
20 65f4b6882bc1d56…5fc6b 7.4 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -2.56 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of volat.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-27 00:16 UTC nearly.trade cc.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only