SINGULARTY nearly.trade

singularty.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (7747991786f445efb658b69857eadc7a57b6b475beec26ed14da8bc35bb2b5b6) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (428 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 6; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Received tokens from the dev: harshit.near, root.near, mob.near, zavodil.near, haenko.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: +27045.85 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1683.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 40% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 17:13:14 UTC · block 217660716 · history: launch only
TransactionGHb1p7MTVHThN…YxLdH
Creatornear.near explorer
Poolsingularty.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy43.37 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 16:49 UTC

15 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit45 579 of 1294 outside buyers
Buy pressure0 buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak13 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity0 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-13 06:50 UTC
Price now14.68x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.13x the peak
Outside buyers in profit579 of 1294 · 44.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev16.5% · 14 of 14 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0.2% · 1 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1036102285873
Buyers spent107.83 NEAR860.50 NEAR4,361.32 NEAR16,359.79 NEAR88,790.44 NEAR
Buyers net result+11.93 NEAR+497.23 NEAR+7,242.86 NEAR+12,462.28 NEAR+27,045.85 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11156
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+3.64 NEAR+77.88 NEAR+528.98 NEAR+846.08 NEAR+1,683.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.27x3.03x15.56x24.02x103.77x
Holders123697196490
Top 10 holders' share99.5%76.6%47.3%45.5%37.8%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.8% · holds 3.8% · holds 1.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — 2.5% · 4 of 4 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 5.4% · 8 of 8 hold 15.4% · 16 of 16 hold 2.5% · 10 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 3.0% · 2 of 2 hold 18.9% · 13 of 14 hold 10.8% · 11 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)8.4% · 10 wallets34.3% · 30 wallets13.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)87.8%62.0%82.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.5%76.6%45.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged77.2% · 2 merged45.5% · 2 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 34 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 9.5 min after buying · transaction +7.44 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 11.8 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.1 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 supremegay.near 46 s · transaction 63.78 NEAR 13.1 min after buying · transaction +296.81 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 11.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.9 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.4 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 aceng03.near 93 s · transaction 13.00 NEAR 12.5 min after buying · transaction +61.70 NEAR
pair bought within 53.0 s of barrey.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.5 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.4 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4 ruggerino.near 96 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 12.6 min after buying · transaction +9.76 NEAR
pair bought within 3.5 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 alola.near 105 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 9.4 min after buying · transaction +1.60 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 40.4 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.1 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.9 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 2.0 min · transaction 67.50 NEAR 11.9 min after buying · transaction +46.69 NEAR
pair bought within 16.1 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.4 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.6 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7 adefajar.tg 2.3 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 11.2 min after buying · transaction +5.59 NEAR
pair bought within 9.0 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.4 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 barrey.near 2.4 min · transaction 5.97 NEAR 10.9 min after buying · transaction +24.98 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 40.4 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.0 s of aceng03.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.4 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc 3.7 min · transaction 2.56 NEAR 15.7 min after buying · transaction +18.50 NEAR none found
10 matrainier.near 3.8 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +621.55 NEAR none found
11 4282ce57357f41f…87b2d 5.0 min · transaction 30.84 NEAR 8.6 min after buying · transaction +9.69 NEAR none found
12 0xfrex.near 7.5 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 20.9 min after buying · transaction +290.90 NEAR none found
13 rejinderi.near 8.7 min · transaction 105.00 NEAR not sold +733.51 NEAR none found
14 snuffdog.near 9.5 min · transaction 4.98 NEAR 20.0 min after buying · transaction +54.95 NEAR none found
15 50192ca54cdcf2a…1767b 9.6 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction +18.39 NEAR none found
16 a30e636b9ed87aa…729fa 9.9 min · transaction 108.46 NEAR 20.0 min after buying · transaction +886.80 NEAR
pair bought within 24.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 5fdf04832669cb9…fd09f 10.2 min · transaction 69.30 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction +192.49 NEAR none found
18 d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a 10.3 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction +6.80 NEAR
pair bought within 24.5 s of a30e636b9ed87aa…729fa · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.8 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 3ba96812ab58128…9790a 10.8 min · transaction 2.98 NEAR 24.9 min after buying · transaction +12.94 NEAR none found
20 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 10.8 min · transaction 78.94 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction +135.97 NEAR
pair bought within 30.8 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of near.near

None known.