SQC nearly.trade

sqc.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (2631 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 66% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-06 21:19:51 UTC · block 218845111 · history: launch only
TransactionCEPZqX3ntfoRw…KMF7a
Creatorddce6c1f2087f0a2b5b3c8cab2a8568383d3fb0d0b71ddca503967152da1d8a6 explorer
Poolqtc.omft.near|sqc.nearlytrade.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 19:22 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-06 19:22 UTC
Price now1.04x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.66x the peak
Outside buyers in profit3 of 28 · 10.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account12.9% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 14 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1515161721
Buyers spent0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR-0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR+0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.57x1.57x1.57x1.57x1.57x
Holders1491079
Top 10 holders' share94.6%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 12.9% · holds 12.9% · holds 12.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 10.4% · 12 of 14 hold 3.6% · 7 of 14 hold 0% · 0 of 14 hold
Other early buyers 1.2% · 1 of 1 hold 1.2% · 1 of 1 hold 2.5% · 3 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)11.6% · 15 wallets4.8% · 15 wallets2.5% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)75.5%82.3%84.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)94.6%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 56c9a6ef438223b….near 40 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 21 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.8 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.3 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2 94feda709c301ed…63090 40 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.5 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 12.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.7 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3 b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea 53 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4 b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 53 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5 bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 53 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6 57b75e37532eb09…faeea 53 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.7 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f 53 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 53 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9 soundsite36.near 56 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction +0.0000 NEAR
pair bought within 2.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 86 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
pair bought within 32.8 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.8 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.8 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 narrowwiki8350.near 104 s · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold -0.0000 NEAR none found
12 iagipero.near 3.2 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
pair bought within 17.1 s of rekttin.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 rekttin.near 3.5 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 5.8 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches
pair bought within 45.5 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.1 s of iagipero.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 4.3 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches
pair bought within 45.5 s of rekttin.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.7 s of h2onear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 h2onear.near 4.6 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction -0.0000 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 16.7 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 78693d2535865c8…fcccf 28.5 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold -0.0000 NEAR none found
17 dinno113.near 35.3 min · transaction 0.0000 NEAR not sold -0.0000 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of ddce6c1f2087f0a2b5b3c…1d8a6

None known.