WEASEL nearly.trade

weasel.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (colddress6080.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2670 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +0.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 33% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-08 01:36:35 UTC · block 219017254 · history: launch only
Transaction	EVa7RWMSknSvD…F52pM
Creator	nearwithmee.near explorer
Pool	qtc.omft.near\|weasel.nearlytrade.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-12 00:50 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-12 00:50 UTC
Price now	1.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.14x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	42 of 161 · 26.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	14	17	25	53	154
Buyers spent	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR	0.0000 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR	+0.0000 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.67x	1.70x	2.22x	4.98x	7.05x
Holders	15	17	26	53	68
Top 10 holders' share	78.1%	77.0%	61.5%	41.1%	50.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.8% · holds	2.8% · holds	2.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	20.6% · 12 of 12 hold	20.6% · 12 of 12 hold	20.6% · 12 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	2.4% · 2 of 2 hold	2.8% · 4 of 5 hold	18.7% · 17 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	23.0% · 14 wallets	23.4% · 17 wallets	39.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	74.2%	73.8%	57.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	78.1%	77.0%	41.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	61.1% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c56af31c5d7bb18…08101	32 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 56.6 s of colddress6080.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	94feda709c301ed…63090	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	80 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	colddress6080.near	89 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 34.4 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.5 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.6 s of c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35	96 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 7.5 s of colddress6080.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.9 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	ngear.near	116 s · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
13	ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb	2.0 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 34.4 s of colddress6080.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.9 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	kkkkk2.near	4.9 min · transaction	21.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
15	vicious_parasit….near	5.9 min · transaction	8.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
16	quick-rider-483….near	9.0 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
17	guz004.near	10.0 min · transaction	44.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
18	coolnimbus.near	19.9 min · transaction	33.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
19	icy_dragon59.us….near	24.9 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found
20	5f6998b19bdff89….near	25.4 min · transaction	not sold	+0.0000 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearwithmee.near

None known.