Received 2.74 NEAR 153.1 h before the launch from bc356ee1a5946aa38e9d8e05d58f5fe6c7928696460afdc1a0610e46d6cd0f4c, whose earlier launch fugue.nearlytrade.near (made by eb1e8770fdf12c029e091746a82145787052368956a542427e873a3021dcba46, linked to him) ended as a rug.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 39 % (788 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -0.08 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 98% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-25 01:07:44 UTC · block 221467883 · history: launch only
This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-25 18:17 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
2
2
2
2
2
Buyers spent
2.00 NEAR
2.00 NEAR
2.00 NEAR
2.00 NEAR
2.00 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.07 NEAR
-0.07 NEAR
-0.07 NEAR
-0.07 NEAR
-0.08 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
Holders
1
1
1
1
0
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
—
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.1% · 1 of 2 hold
0.1% · 1 of 2 hold
0.1% · 1 of 2 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
—
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0.1% · 2 wallets
0.1% · 2 wallets
0.1% · 2 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
99.9%
99.9%
99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 2 wallets that bought, and what links them
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
What the links mean
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.