In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
No risk signal fired for this launch.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2565 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +117.91 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 65% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-06 09:29:57 UTC · block 218772969 · history: launch only
18out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
48
147 of 306 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
25
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 13:57 UTC
Price now
2.35x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.25x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
147 of 306 · 48.0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0.2% · 2 of 6 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
0
0
0
1
2
Buyers spent
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
27.29 NEAR
46.95 NEAR
Buyers net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
+2.31 NEAR
+117.91 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
—
—
—
1.09x
4.56x
Holders
10
19
20
28
76
Top 10 holders' share
100%
86.4%
90.2%
74.9%
41.0%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
—
—
1.5% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0% · 0 wallets
0% · 0 wallets
1.5% · 1 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
100%
100%
98.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
86.4%
74.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
86.4% · 0 merged
74.9% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 1 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.