ztracedex.v2-launchpad.….near justhoot v2

ztracedex.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator); smoothed rug share 47%.
Evidence: launch ztrace.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (798 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 36 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: ztrace.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-19 18:29:40 UTC, 153.3 min after the launch: 8CpkTcCnVvAVM…Q82bq.
Outside buyers' net result: -69.22 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.93 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 36% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-19 15:56:21 UTC · block 220677950 · history: launch only
Transaction	DdHd4t5uBAXWW…Pi97v
Creator	ztrace.near explorer
Pool	wrap.near\|ztracedex.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|10000
Dev buy	2.09 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:50 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-31 02:06 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-31 02:06 UTC
Price now	1.00x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.35x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	37 of 88 · 42.0%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 21 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	153.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	30	37	37	49	88
Buyers spent	226.17 NEAR	277.09 NEAR	282.09 NEAR	591.98 NEAR	1,904.53 NEAR
Buyers net result	+31.81 NEAR	-7.58 NEAR	-8.61 NEAR	+88.55 NEAR	-69.22 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Insiders' net result	+3.02 NEAR	+2.31 NEAR	+2.26 NEAR	+4.98 NEAR	+3.93 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.44x	1.48x	1.48x	1.74x	2.87x
Holders	26	12	8	23	7
Top 10 holders' share	83.2%	96.5%	100%	83.2%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.2% · holds	0.2% · holds	0.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	10.2% · 17 of 21 hold	1.8% · 6 of 21 hold	0.4% · 3 of 21 hold
Other early buyers	5.8% · 8 of 9 hold	0.4% · 1 of 9 hold	3.8% · 3 of 9 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	15.9% · 30 wallets	2.1% · 30 wallets	4.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	83.8%	97.7%	95.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	83.2%	96.5%	83.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	84.3% · 1 merged	98.3% · 1 merged	83.2% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	6 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	7.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 2.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
2	cockis.near	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.72 NEAR	pair bought within 2.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	8 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	ro52.near	8 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	18 s after buying · transaction	-0.36 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	9 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
6	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	25 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	12.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 17.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.0 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
7	js1112s.near	30 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	+5.18 NEAR	pair bought within 21.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.3 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
8	beenhere.near	45 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	32.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 35.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.6 s of alola.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	56 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.63 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 47.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
10	rekttin.near	63 s · transaction	29.88 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+7.17 NEAR	pair bought within 6.7 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
11	glacial_anomaly….near	73 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+1.17 NEAR	pair bought within 16.9 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.2 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	phanbinh0297.near	74 s · transaction	1.20 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 18.1 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	toxic_tentacle5….near	76 s · transaction	18.81 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+1.29 NEAR	pair bought within 20.0 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.3 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	8375d38f538a83e…57122	85 s · transaction	13.00 NEAR	6.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 28.3 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.9 s of beenhere.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.6 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	1e3e1c83ce489cb…33345	86 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	22.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.27 NEAR	pair bought within 16.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	35ece6a10831297…417cb	95 s · transaction	3.06 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.50 NEAR	none found
17	e8a162641a55288…58210	102 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	21.3 min after buying · transaction	-2.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 46.1 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.4 s of rekttin.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.2 s of frigid_polar1.u….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
18	dafodil.near	116 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.96 NEAR	none found
19	warmcatt.near	2.1 min · transaction	1.50 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 27.9 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of h2onear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	h2onear.near	2.1 min · transaction	4.10 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.86 NEAR	pair bought within 2.4 s of warmcatt.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.9 s of frigid_polar1.u….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of ztrace.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-11 20:02 UTC	nearly.trade	ztrace.nearlytrade.near	0 Low retro	rug	history: launch only