0XNEAR nearly.trade

0xnear.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch 0xnear.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (1947 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 64 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 107.5% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: tomdrawn.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 06:09:46 UTC, 525.2 min after the launch: EnJxFwpb9rGS5…FcewS.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -14.18 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.47 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 64% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 21:24:35 UTC · block 218111061 · history: launch only
Transaction4Lu5yf96JwzJb…EuZHo
Creatortomdrawn.near explorer
Pool0xnear.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy18.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-08 01:06 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-08 01:06 UTC
Price now0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.64x the peak
Outside buyers in profit4 of 31 · 12.9%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 16 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%107.5%
Dev's first sell after launch————525.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1828293030
Buyers spent199.36 NEAR258.52 NEAR263.47 NEAR264.47 NEAR264.67 NEAR
Buyers net result+32.98 NEAR-4.13 NEAR-4.83 NEAR-4.54 NEAR-14.18 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%107.5%
Insiders' net result+7.40 NEAR+2.98 NEAR+2.89 NEAR+2.98 NEAR+0.47 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.41x1.49x1.49x1.49x1.49x
Holders191917196
Top 10 holders' share93.6%90.7%93.1%94.3%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.7% · holds 1.7% · holds 1.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 14.1% · 12 of 12 hold 5.6% · 9 of 16 hold 5.5% · 8 of 16 hold
Other early buyers 1.2% · 6 of 6 hold 1.8% · 9 of 12 hold 1.7% · 8 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)15.4% · 18 wallets7.4% · 28 wallets7.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)82.9%90.9%91.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)93.6%90.7%94.3%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder93.9% · 2 merged90.7% · 1 merged94.3% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 10 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +0.70 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.2 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 10 s · transaction 0.01 NEAR not sold +0.0013 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 45 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.2 s of neverekt.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3 axxe.near 24 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +3.73 NEAR
pair bought within 24.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.1 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4 3347dd8076331ad…52407 30 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 12.8 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 2.4 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5 neverekt.near 33 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR not sold +0.12 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches
pair bought within 23.2 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 48 s · transaction 35.79 NEAR 9.5 min after buying · transaction +2.90 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 15.2 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 66 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 9.9 min after buying · transaction -1.14 NEAR
pair bought within 17.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.1 s of axxe.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 f044e90b41ae546…4106c 94 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 6.3 min after buying · transaction +3.52 NEAR
pair bought within 46.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 84730cb083829b6…d761e 114 s · transaction 3.46 NEAR 11.1 min after buying · transaction -0.38 NEAR none found
10 bf4fb1ced13486c…ad6be 2.5 min · transaction 0.10 NEAR 17.4 min after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR none found
11 b8185e452876272…dff87 3.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 1.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 579b7294974b54d…30203 3.0 min · transaction 9.00 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction -0.07 NEAR
pair bought within 1.2 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 9b8f63f4a1b1738…f2f06 3.7 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.10 NEAR none found
14 flymakar.near 3.9 min · transaction 3.00 NEAR 26.7 min after buying · transaction -0.37 NEAR none found
15 a00142af8f67f1b…98b3b 4.1 min · transaction 3.00 NEAR 9.7 min after buying · transaction -0.37 NEAR
pair bought within 39.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 smoothjail1300.near 4.3 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -0.55 NEAR none found
17 h2onear.near 4.6 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 6.5 min after buying · transaction -1.48 NEAR none found
18 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 4.8 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction -1.86 NEAR
pair bought within 39.2 s of a00142af8f67f1b…98b3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 hatersgonnahate.near 5.9 min · transaction 4.75 NEAR 10.0 min after buying · transaction -1.02 NEAR none found
20 starinvest.near 6.6 min · transaction 1.14 NEAR not sold -0.24 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of tomdrawn.near

None known.