1559 nearly.trade

1559.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 50.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 300, sell_bps 300, creator_bps 5000).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (146 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 20.50 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 104.9% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: 234142029159eea35bc54…98de3 (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 14:38:32 UTC, 42.0 min after the launch: CbWmn4b73vNz5…KYQrN.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -20.50 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.43 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-27 13:56:32 UTC · block 217495027 · history: launch only
Transaction6hvfXs4r4VdnR…tau56
Creator234142029159eea35bc5440c56f63fa2b130b40c8648c144f4bb6b2c4b098de3 explorer
Pool1559.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy35.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-27 15:52 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%104.9%104.9%
Dev's first sell after launch———42.0 min42.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1010101011
Buyers spent283.00 NEAR283.00 NEAR283.00 NEAR283.00 NEAR283.10 NEAR
Buyers net result-12.43 NEAR-16.45 NEAR-16.90 NEAR-20.50 NEAR-20.70 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%104.9%104.9%
Insiders' net result+5.45 NEAR+3.49 NEAR+3.11 NEAR-0.43 NEAR-0.43 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.38x1.38x1.38x1.38x1.38x
Holders77666
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.2% · holds 3.2% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 1.5% · 1 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 5 hold 0% · 0 of 5 hold
Other early buyers 4.3% · 4 of 5 hold 3.5% · 3 of 5 hold 0.5% · 2 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)5.9% · 10 wallets3.5% · 10 wallets0.5% · 10 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)91.0%93.3%99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 10 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 internisactive.near 31 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 57 s after buying · transaction +1.22 NEAR
2 zambona.near 41 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR not sold -0.63 NEAR
3 nolifekrisu.near 44 s · transaction 120.00 NEAR 60 s after buying · transaction -8.75 NEAR
4 coolnook7072.near 65 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 31 s after buying · transaction -0.57 NEAR
5 acd876fa672624e…fa933 66 s · transaction 29.85 NEAR 34 s after buying · transaction -3.10 NEAR
6 buyitall.near 72 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 9 s after buying · transaction -4.13 NEAR
7 nihalchand.near 105 s · transaction 35.00 NEAR 37.3 min after buying · transaction -3.20 NEAR
8 c1f54e85e93419f…b3405 113 s · transaction 9.95 NEAR 98 s after buying · transaction -0.24 NEAR
9 0xfrex.near 114 s · transaction 11.00 NEAR 12.0 min after buying · transaction -0.97 NEAR
10 9a1585ac284fa42…eba4f 114 s · transaction 1.20 NEAR 15.0 min after buying · transaction -0.13 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 234142029159eea35bc54…98de3

None known.