1DOLLAR nearly.trade

1dollar.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch 1dollar.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 15 % (1076 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: onedollarnear.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -50.10 NEAR · insiders' net result: +57.64 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 45% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 14:44:16 UTC · block 217790493 · history: launch only
Transaction	8qM4UiQrJQHRq…GVpai
Creator	onedollarnear.near explorer
Pool	1dollar.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	43.37 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-30 11:21 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	42.3 min	42.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	29	34	40	40	41
Buyers spent	659.74 NEAR	691.53 NEAR	907.02 NEAR	907.02 NEAR	927.02 NEAR
Buyers net result	+49.95 NEAR	-12.51 NEAR	-8.43 NEAR	-46.76 NEAR	-50.10 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+56.94 NEAR	+57.64 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.09x	2.09x	2.09x	2.09x	2.09x
Holders	23	18	21	10	6
Top 10 holders' share	88.9%	97.1%	96.1%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	17% · 18 of 26 hold	6.8% · 9 of 26 hold	1.1% · 3 of 26 hold
Other early buyers	1.9% · 3 of 3 hold	2.2% · 3 of 4 hold	2.6% · 1 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	18.9% · 29 wallets	9.0% · 30 wallets	3.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	81.0%	91.0%	96.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	88.9%	97.1%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100.0% · 2 merged	98.9% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486	37 s · transaction	29.70 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+8.70 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 47.4 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.8 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
2	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	37 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.80 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 52.7 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
3	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	41 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	88 s after buying · transaction	+0.91 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 43.4 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.7 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
4	e8a162641a55288…58210	53 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	79 s after buying · transaction	+2.57 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 12.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.0 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
5	syndi95.near	54 s · transaction	24.80 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+2.87 NEAR	pair bought within 17.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
6	prams.near	55 s · transaction	44.64 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.30 NEAR	pair bought within 18.2 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.5 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	barrey.near	68 s · transaction	4.96 NEAR	13.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 15.8 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
8	5afbf66ccec6b03…c4bfd	73 s · transaction	5.94 NEAR	not sold	-1.13 NEAR	pair bought within 18.7 s of syndi95.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9	luckyfrog8326.near	75 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+11.43 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches pair bought within 17.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.2 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
10	js1112s.near	75 s · transaction	0.10 NEAR	21 s after buying · transaction	+0.0044 NEAR	pair bought within 8.8 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1	79 s · transaction	9.92 NEAR	not sold	-2.11 NEAR	pair bought within 12.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	alola.near	84 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 43.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.8 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 18 more pairs · all pairs
13	80e23beba480a94…63685	88 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 3.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.0 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	89 s · transaction	0.99 NEAR	38.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.0092 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 5.3 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.7 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
15	579b7294974b54d…30203	92 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	29.7 min after buying · transaction	-2.30 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 7.7 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.7 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 17 more pairs · all pairs
16	2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c	92 s · transaction	60.00 NEAR	18.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.33 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.8 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
17	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	101 s · transaction	43.54 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.98 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
18	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	102 s · transaction	43.54 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.96 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
19	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	102 s · transaction	35.63 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-3.51 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
20	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	102 s · transaction	35.63 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-2.35 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of onedollarnear.near

None known.