6ILLIA nearly.trade

6illia.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch 6illia.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (1605 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 58.70 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 117.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: 6illia.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-13 12:07:25 UTC, 36.4 min after the launch: 62CD8TTny6A4G…KhafG.
Outside buyers' net result: -58.70 NEAR · insiders' net result: +21.98 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-13 11:31:00 UTC · block 219810806 · history: launch only
Transaction	6xr3dakyRK347…yCReA
Creator	6illia.near explorer
Pool	6illia.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	19.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-20 09:59 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-20 09:59 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.34x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	28 of 71 · 39.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 19 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	117.0%	117.0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	36.4 min	36.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	28	39	60	68	71
Buyers spent	343.57 NEAR	496.41 NEAR	980.78 NEAR	1,288.79 NEAR	1,305.17 NEAR
Buyers net result	+105.32 NEAR	+82.18 NEAR	+393.25 NEAR	-58.70 NEAR	-64.25 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	117.0%	117.0%
Insiders' net result	+14.56 NEAR	+13.31 NEAR	+32.06 NEAR	+21.98 NEAR	+21.98 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.75x	1.79x	2.84x	2.84x	2.84x
Holders	26	30	43	21	12
Top 10 holders' share	81.5%	83.4%	72.2%	91.8%	99.2%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.8% · holds	1.8% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	19.1% · 19 of 19 hold	13.8% · 12 of 19 hold	0.6% · 3 of 19 hold
Other early buyers	4.8% · 9 of 9 hold	6.7% · 10 of 11 hold	0.9% · 2 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	24.0% · 28 wallets	20.5% · 30 wallets	1.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	74.2%	77.7%	98.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	81.5%	83.4%	91.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	86.7% · 2 merged	83.4% · 1 merged	91.8% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	35.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.63 NEAR	pair bought within 21.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.4 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	sickvilla1308.near	10 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 3.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 53 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.9 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.36 NEAR	pair bought within 4.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.1 s of alola.near · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	kulesh_off.user….near	21 s · transaction	37.62 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	+11.63 NEAR	pair bought within 31.9 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	rusty_drone.use….near	22 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	21.8 min after buying · transaction	+7.44 NEAR	pair bought within 16.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.5 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	28 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	18.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.83 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 21.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.7 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	38 s · transaction	8.49 NEAR	14.2 min after buying · transaction	+4.57 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 14.6 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	177d0dba946d26e….near	43 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+2.65 NEAR	pair bought within 14.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.8 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	5330416d2d20245…f7cb5	43 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	28.5 min after buying · transaction	+6.61 NEAR	pair bought within 15.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.2 s of rusty_drone.use….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.6 s of kulesh_off.user….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	alola.near	52 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	17.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.84 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 46.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
11	shikigima.near	57 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	+12.75 NEAR	pair bought within 4.7 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.2 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	km686.tg	69 s · transaction	55.00 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+1.51 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 17.0 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.3 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
13	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	74 s · transaction	5.94 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	+2.35 NEAR	pair bought within 21.3 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of km686.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	richpub.near	98 s · transaction	2.97 NEAR	14.3 min after buying · transaction	+1.33 NEAR	none found
15	4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f	100 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	23.1 min after buying · transaction	+11.21 NEAR	pair bought within 47.9 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.1 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.1 s of warmcatt.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16	quick-rider-483….near	113 s · transaction	3.10 NEAR	33.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.28 NEAR	pair bought within 4.1 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.4 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.7 s of warmcatt.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17	hungcoiiii1.near	117 s · transaction	51.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	-6.48 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 47.3 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.1 s of quick-rider-483….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.6 s of warmcatt.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	warmcatt.near	2.1 min · transaction	9.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+1.25 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 58.9 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.1 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.6 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
19	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	2.6 min · transaction	125.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-13.50 NEAR	pair bought within 58.1 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.9 s of p0tz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	tpwuden.near	2.8 min · transaction	12.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.90 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 6illia.near

None known.