ABB nearly.trade

abb.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch abb.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 27 % (748 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 74 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: asianbossboy.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-20 18:20:46 UTC, 736.2 min after the launch: EWWgkqJPkRmhN…npSvD.
Outside buyers' net result: -16.07 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.04 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 74% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-20 06:04:32 UTC · block 220763962 · history: launch only
Transaction	7o7jZB5dFKjEH…Z1DeQ
Creator	asianbossboy.near explorer
Pool	abb.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	3.50 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-21 00:02 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	736.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	20	26	28	28
Buyers spent	169.45 NEAR	214.71 NEAR	221.32 NEAR	233.32 NEAR	233.32 NEAR
Buyers net result	+15.49 NEAR	+9.38 NEAR	+12.09 NEAR	-7.37 NEAR	-16.07 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Insiders' net result	+0.97 NEAR	+0.88 NEAR	+0.97 NEAR	+0.39 NEAR	-0.04 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.32x	1.33x	1.33x	1.33x	1.33x
Holders	13	14	19	10	2
Top 10 holders' share	97.9%	96.1%	92.3%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.3% · holds	0.3% · holds	0.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	11.1% · 11 of 14 hold	7.5% · 8 of 14 hold	4.1% · 3 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	1.5% · 2 of 2 hold	3.7% · 6 of 6 hold	3% · 8 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	12.5% · 16 wallets	11.2% · 20 wallets	7.1% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	87.1%	88.5%	92.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.9%	96.1%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.5% · 1 merged	96.1% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	35.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.22 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	40.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
4	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	20.94 NEAR	not sold	+1.67 NEAR	pair bought within 2.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	ro52.near	6 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.27 NEAR	pair bought within 3.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
6	shortgirl.user.….near	67 s · transaction	3.96 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.69 NEAR	pair bought within 46.7 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	91 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.43 NEAR	pair bought within 23.0 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	km686.tg	105 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 8.6 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	alola.near	114 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 53.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.0 s of 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.9 s of hmmmm.user.intear.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	proud-walrus-52….near	2.4 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.31 NEAR	pair bought within 20.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.5 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	irene.user.intear.near	2.7 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	33.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 4.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.8 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	hmmmm.user.intear.near	2.8 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	57 s after buying · transaction	+0.34 NEAR	pair bought within 52.9 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	2.8 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 53.4 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.5 s of decep.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.6 s of irene.user.intear.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	decep.near	3.0 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	53.3 min after buying · transaction	-3.08 NEAR	pair bought within 15.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	ironborn.user.i….near	3.2 min · transaction	14.85 NEAR	not sold	-2.41 NEAR	none found
16	gawoo01.near	4.3 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	40.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.01 NEAR	none found
17	sixways.near	5.8 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	31.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.38 NEAR	none found
18	d2256ba56efe6a8…aafe7	7.0 min · transaction	18.86 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-2.21 NEAR	none found
19	private_sentine….near	12.0 min · transaction	9.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.16 NEAR	none found
20	polar_reindeer6….near	12.7 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	39.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.42 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of asianbossboy.near

None known.