AIFM nearly.trade

aifm.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 56.00% of it (1.120% per buy, 1.120% per sell; creator_bps 8000, platform_bps 3000).
    Evidence: launch aifm.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (c534788adb880a27b65fe8ba395bc0cfdc73a8452733ae3af2456a86adc75f7a) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 24 % (1858 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 14.83 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 103.7% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: nearfmai.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-12 14:55:47 UTC, 2.3 min after the launch: 41XeTUeifzqgj…1rP1t.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -14.83 NEAR · insiders' net result: +5.99 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-12 14:53:31 UTC · block 219685225 · history: launch only
TransactionADX6Dxk4VQ1zh…mW3q9
Creatornearfmai.near explorer
Poolaifm.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy25.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 80.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-12 16:02 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)100%100%100%103.7%103.7%
Dev's first sell after launch2.3 min2.3 min2.3 min2.3 min2.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1515151515
Buyers spent160.13 NEAR160.13 NEAR160.13 NEAR160.13 NEAR160.13 NEAR
Buyers net result-14.81 NEAR-14.81 NEAR-14.81 NEAR-14.83 NEAR-14.83 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)100%100%100%103.7%103.7%
Insiders' net result+5.13 NEAR+5.13 NEAR+5.13 NEAR+5.99 NEAR+5.99 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.28x1.28x1.28x1.28x1.28x
Holders11532
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.1% · 1 of 15 hold 0.1% · 1 of 15 hold 0% · 0 of 15 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.1% · 15 wallets0.1% · 15 wallets0% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.9%99.9%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 5 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 95 s after buying · transaction +0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 10.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.2 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.8 s of pramsndut.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 16 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -0.22 NEAR
pair bought within 10.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.8 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.3 s of pramsndut.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3 pramsndut.near 28 s · transaction 29.70 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction -2.49 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches
pair bought within 22.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.0 s of 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4 56c9a6ef438223b….near 47 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 40 s after buying · transaction -0.99 NEAR
pair bought within 42.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.4 s of pramsndut.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 60 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.7 min after buying · transaction -0.85 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 44.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 54.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 57.7 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
6 2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction +0.04 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7 57b75e37532eb09…faeea 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 33 s after buying · transaction -0.60 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 94feda709c301ed…63090 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction +0.16 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction -0.38 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11 bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction -0.88 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12 b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction -1.11 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13 b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 108 s · transaction 8.87 NEAR 32 s after buying · transaction -1.01 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
14 rekttin.near 116 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 29 s after buying · transaction -6.09 NEAR
pair bought within 1.9 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.4 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 alola.near 118 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.2 min after buying · transaction -0.30 NEAR
pair bought within 9.3 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.3 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.3 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearfmai.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-12 15:01 UTC nearly.trade aibb.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only