AO nearly.trade

ao.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch ao.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (352 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 37.62 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: truegrain1594.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 14:14:41 UTC, 2.4 min after the launch: AJ5YrXATBowhZ…VKANx.
Outside buyers' net result: -37.62 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.31 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 14:12:17 UTC · block 217642482 · history: launch only
Transaction	3GrrzrvzYaXQg…9iVRk
Creator	truegrain1594.near explorer
Pool	ao.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-29 05:27 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-29 05:27 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.41x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	13 of 37 · 35.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 15 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	2.4 min	2.4 min	2.4 min	2.4 min	2.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	37	37	37	37
Buyers spent	304.95 NEAR	759.97 NEAR	759.97 NEAR	759.97 NEAR	759.97 NEAR
Buyers net result	+49.42 NEAR	-22.42 NEAR	-37.49 NEAR	-37.62 NEAR	-37.72 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+1.31 NEAR	+1.31 NEAR	+1.31 NEAR	+1.31 NEAR	+1.31 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.49x	2.33x	2.33x	2.33x	2.33x
Holders	17	17	12	9	8
Top 10 holders' share	95.6%	97.0%	98.5%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	8.5% · 10 of 12 hold	0.8% · 3 of 15 hold	0% · 0 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	10.6% · 6 of 6 hold	5.7% · 8 of 15 hold	0.2% · 3 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	19.1% · 18 wallets	6.5% · 30 wallets	0.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	80.9%	93.5%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	95.6%	97.0%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.4% · 1 merged	97.0% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	x0xdead.near	28 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 4.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	32 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.49 NEAR	pair bought within 4.3 s of x0xdead.near · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.0 s of 0xfrex.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.6 s of 5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961	67 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	8.1 min after buying · transaction	+4.64 NEAR	pair bought within 34.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.2 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	e00953313c9b49e…b1762	77 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.96 NEAR	pair bought within 32.5 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	0xfrex.near	89 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	75 s after buying · transaction	-0.63 NEAR	pair bought within 19.8 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	kimpet77.near	109 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	7.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.43 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 40.3 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of 0xfrex.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.5 s of e00953313c9b49e…b1762 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7	38271f270f8d07f…31d8b	2.1 min · transaction	74.25 NEAR	46 s after buying · transaction	+8.37 NEAR	none found
8	frosty_avalanch….near	2.4 min · transaction	0.20 NEAR	not sold	-0.03 NEAR	none found
9	aceng03.near	2.5 min · transaction	7.00 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.25 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 40.3 s of kimpet77.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	lowlibrary565.near	2.7 min · transaction	7.00 NEAR	8.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.92 NEAR	none found
11	8e9629d2c32c1ff…ec3a5	2.8 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+23.88 NEAR	none found
12	hairyotter.near	2.9 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.31 NEAR	none found
13	e8a162641a55288…58210	3.2 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+3.25 NEAR	pair bought within 44.7 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.1 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	sillylink3689.near	3.8 min · transaction	28.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+8.62 NEAR	none found
15	nonearforyou.near	4.1 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+12.61 NEAR	pair bought within 4.9 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be	4.1 min · transaction	45.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-4.07 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 0.4 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.6 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	4.2 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	7.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 0.4 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.2 s of panjipetualang.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
18	panjipetualang.near	4.6 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.18 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 28.2 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.6 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.2 s of greenhost4707.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	greenhost4707.near	5.2 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	16.4 min after buying · transaction	-3.72 NEAR	pair bought within 32.2 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	495d3af763bd9b3…f8cd2	5.3 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	38.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.39 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of truegrain1594.near

None known.