AROUND nearly.trade

around.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch around.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (bb6d9ad38c735bab0e32877938d21a38e318c13eaf7031336c5802d86e45aab3) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 7 % (746 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 24.42 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 115.4% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: 33c9de738ea6e3c7b489f…21599 (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 01:05:04 UTC, 22.5 min after the launch: H6ZeGVNDeToef…FX4vG.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -24.42 NEAR · insiders' net result: -11.22 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 00:42:35 UTC · block 217706020 · history: launch only
Transaction3pkADArdEW5c5…AGU9P
Creator33c9de738ea6e3c7b489f955fc9df469ca5234fe631e5502c19e12f560d21599 explorer
Poolaround.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-29 09:57 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 09:57 UTC
Price now0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.28x the peak
Outside buyers in profit15 of 37 · 40.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle0% · 0 of 10 hold
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 12 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%115.0%115.4%115.4%
Dev's first sell after launch——22.5 min22.5 min22.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2235373737
Buyers spent552.58 NEAR1,032.87 NEAR1,092.87 NEAR1,092.87 NEAR1,092.87 NEAR
Buyers net result+210.10 NEAR+722.77 NEAR-23.10 NEAR-24.42 NEAR-24.55 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%115.0%115.4%115.4%
Insiders' net result+7.64 NEAR+30.80 NEAR-11.31 NEAR-11.22 NEAR-11.22 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.12x3.42x3.50x3.50x3.50x
Holders24371075
Top 10 holders' share65.1%52.2%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.2% · holds 2.0% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle 18.5% · 10 of 10 hold 19.9% · 10 of 10 hold 0% · 0 of 10 hold
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 11.1% · 10 of 10 hold 15.7% · 12 of 12 hold 0.6% · 2 of 12 hold
Other early buyers 0.8% · 2 of 2 hold 4.6% · 8 of 8 hold 0.1% · 1 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)30.4% · 22 wallets40.2% · 30 wallets0.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)68.3%57.8%99.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)65.1%52.2%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100.0% · 3 merged89.7% · 3 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 6 s · transaction 36.29 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +24.20 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 11.4 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
2 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 6 s · transaction 44.56 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +27.18 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (45.00 NEAR, 10.2 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
3 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 6 s · transaction 35.08 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +17.74 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 11.4 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 6 s · transaction 40.46 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +7.35 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (45.00 NEAR, 10.2 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of fafc3e304223363…837e9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc 6 s · transaction 38.71 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +12.23 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 11.4 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3cd87a183ea1689…0aa71 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of fafc3e304223363…837e9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6 fafc3e304223363…837e9 6 s · transaction 27.96 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +22.53 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (2.82 NEAR, 81 s before the launch) · transaction
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 5e163acd111d7f1…4dafc · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 218e2a40fa2af2b…049e0 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 6 s · transaction 18.52 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +15.16 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (20.00 NEAR, 89.6 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of ea2d15e5771412c…b6cf5 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 ea2d15e5771412c…b6cf5 6 s · transaction 19.84 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +3.24 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.7 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9 bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 6 s · transaction 31.95 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +0.43 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 11.4 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of e313afb45f8d1fd…71ed4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10 d27b78cc2c27c4d…5cabb 6 s · transaction 22.70 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +23.26 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (3.06 NEAR, 81 s before the launch) · transaction
pair bought within 0.0 s of ea2d15e5771412c…b6cf5 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 0ab507f9daa125b…93e99 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 e313afb45f8d1fd…71ed4 6 s · transaction 35.94 NEAR 22.4 min after buying · transaction +0.33 NEAR
bundle one of 10 wallets that bought within 6 s of the launch and were funded by bb6d9ad38c735ba…5aab3 (40.00 NEAR, 11.4 min before the launch) · transaction
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of bab2c979354a1a5…f5c16 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 09a4b0a1032800f…71838 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of ff77852bb8bd6f2…6d949 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12 alola.near 14 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction +0.54 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 55.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.2 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
13 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 69 s · transaction 71.28 NEAR 8 s after buying · transaction -14.95 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.2 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 69 s · transaction 59.40 NEAR 8 s after buying · transaction -12.58 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.2 s of alola.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 69 s · transaction 39.60 NEAR 8 s after buying · transaction -11.56 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.2 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 0abc765453a9cfd…c34fd 112 s · transaction 35.00 NEAR 20.6 min after buying · transaction +16.68 NEAR
pair bought within 20.1 s of 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 9792fc1b9b97e78…1edc6 2.2 min · transaction 16.00 NEAR 20.3 min after buying · transaction -0.54 NEAR
pair bought within 20.1 s of 0abc765453a9cfd…c34fd · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc 2.3 min · transaction 6.00 NEAR 21.6 min after buying · transaction -1.60 NEAR none found
19 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 2.9 min · transaction 39.60 NEAR 61 s after buying · transaction -9.95 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 26.9 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of d0tz.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 d0tz.near 3.3 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 18.9 min after buying · transaction +39.63 NEAR
pair bought within 6.9 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 33c9de738ea6e3c7b489f…21599

None known.