ARSON nearly.trade

arson.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (844 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Received tokens from the dev: alex.near.
Outside buyers' net result: +187.03 NEAR · insiders' net result: +23.87 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 35% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-16 11:26:24 UTC · block 220216662 · history: launch only
Transaction	4SkRPfvL8bSBf…otobP
Creator	softlemon4759.near explorer
Pool	arson.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	10.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 14:35 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-06 14:35 UTC
Price now	1.21x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.15x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	67 of 204 · 32.8%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	2.6% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.0% · 1 of 13 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	22	46	80	139	195
Buyers spent	387.65 NEAR	1,075.07 NEAR	2,572.61 NEAR	4,255.17 NEAR	7,571.57 NEAR
Buyers net result	+163.34 NEAR	+219.86 NEAR	+1,084.49 NEAR	+1,927.17 NEAR	+187.03 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+10.10 NEAR	+12.59 NEAR	+35.63 NEAR	+53.27 NEAR	+23.87 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.01x	2.72x	5.39x	7.92x	7.92x
Holders	23	33	60	104	73
Top 10 holders' share	83.1%	72.2%	51.6%	45.2%	64.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.9% · holds	1.0% · holds	1.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	10.5% · 13 of 13 hold	7.3% · 10 of 13 hold	3.1% · 9 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	15.6% · 9 of 9 hold	9.0% · 10 of 17 hold	8.1% · 11 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	26.1% · 22 wallets	16.3% · 30 wallets	11.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	73.0%	82.7%	87.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	83.1%	72.2%	45.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	89.3% · 2 merged	72.2% · 2 merged	45.2% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	4 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	+9.97 NEAR	pair bought within 17.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.9 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.2 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	sickvilla1308.near	4 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.7 min after buying · transaction	+12.82 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 53 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.9 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+24.45 NEAR	pair bought within 5.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	+8.04 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 17.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.1 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.1 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5	js1112s.near	52 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	27.2 min after buying · transaction	+54.43 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 47.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.9 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	56c9a6ef438223b….near	55 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	13.4 min after buying · transaction	+27.46 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 21 of those launches pair bought within 50.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.8 s of alola.near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	0xfrex.near	55 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	23.7 min after buying · transaction	+87.86 NEAR	pair bought within 22.3 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	69 s · transaction	7.50 NEAR	17.6 min after buying · transaction	+28.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 8.7 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	74 s · transaction	1.68 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+2.25 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 3.6 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	77 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.64 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 8.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.8 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	rekttin.near	81 s · transaction	29.88 NEAR	17.7 min after buying · transaction	+47.48 NEAR	pair bought within 3.1 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12	e8a162641a55288…58210	95 s · transaction	23.00 NEAR	5.3 min after buying · transaction	+9.74 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 17.3 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.1 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13	sayyid01.near	98 s · transaction	70.00 NEAR	47.0 min after buying · transaction	+253.90 NEAR	none found
14	jacobfx.near	2.1 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+4.34 NEAR	pair bought within 49.3 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	equalharbor5773.near	2.8 min · transaction	29.70 NEAR	13.9 min after buying · transaction	+35.98 NEAR	none found
16	liminiate.near	3.7 min · transaction	180.00 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	+39.91 NEAR	none found
17	sixways.near	3.9 min · transaction	2.60 NEAR	37.9 min after buying · transaction	+5.74 NEAR	none found
18	toxic_parasite.….near	4.1 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+4.07 NEAR	none found
19	xiaochen2.near	4.2 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+6.57 NEAR	none found
20	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	4.4 min · transaction	597.60 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+52.78 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of softlemon4759.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-16 11:08 UTC	justhoot v1	quantcum-c4bd20.launchpad.justhoot.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only