BACK nearly.trade

back.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch back.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1484 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 45 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: nearback.near (dev).
Received tokens from the dev: aggregatedex.near.
Outside buyers' net result: -25.12 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.16 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 45% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-30 17:31:29 UTC · block 217945512 · history: launch only
Transaction	CELsAhmM3Etj4…BmhyE
Creator	nearback.near explorer
Pool	back.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 23:57 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-01 23:57 UTC
Price now	1.04x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.42x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	19 of 46 · 41.3%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0.3% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 21 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	1161.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	42	45	45	46
Buyers spent	139.85 NEAR	724.47 NEAR	883.76 NEAR	883.76 NEAR	888.72 NEAR
Buyers net result	+14.81 NEAR	+18.18 NEAR	-17.07 NEAR	-18.12 NEAR	-25.12 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+3.16 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.25x	2.50x	2.50x	2.50x	2.50x
Holders	12	19	12	13	9
Top 10 holders' share	98.6%	90.8%	99.1%	99%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.6% · 10 of 11 hold	7.1% · 8 of 21 hold	3.2% · 3 of 21 hold
Other early buyers	4.8% · 2 of 2 hold	4.1% · 4 of 9 hold	3.0% · 3 of 9 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	11.3% · 13 wallets	11.2% · 30 wallets	6.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	88.7%	88.8%	93.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	98.6%	90.8%	99%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	90.8% · 1 merged	99% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	8 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	+2.83 NEAR	pair bought within 8.9 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.5 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	17 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.31 NEAR	pair bought within 8.9 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	19 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	11.3 min after buying · transaction	+5.55 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 1.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.5 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	29 s · transaction	1.48 NEAR	9.9 min after buying · transaction	+1.35 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 9.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	localdome493.near	65 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	5.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.26 NEAR	pair bought within 14.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.2 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	579b7294974b54d…30203	80 s · transaction	28.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+9.55 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 50.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.4 s of kimpet77.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.8 s of localdome493.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	101 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+2.00 NEAR	pair bought within 44.3 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	kimpet77.near	110 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	7.7 min after buying · transaction	+9.25 NEAR	pair bought within 30.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.3 s of barrey.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	badriansyahirwa….near	2.4 min · transaction	1.50 NEAR	77 s after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 15.4 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.9 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.3 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	barrey.near	2.7 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	21.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.83 NEAR	pair bought within 50.3 s of kimpet77.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	766ce68b561d208…6a2a3	4.0 min · transaction	29.70 NEAR	8.4 min after buying · transaction	+27.46 NEAR	none found
12	25e51db83cf2950…38964	4.8 min · transaction	29.76 NEAR	8.1 min after buying · transaction	+25.45 NEAR	none found
13	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	4.9 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	10.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.25 NEAR	pair bought within 8.6 s of 6b62f94f8facdfa…09bdc · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	6b62f94f8facdfa…09bdc	5.0 min · transaction	4.20 NEAR	11.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 8.6 s of 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	iagipero.near	5.1 min · transaction	12.00 NEAR	not sold	-2.77 NEAR	none found
16	d_dvach-hot1.tg	5.4 min · transaction	60.00 NEAR	9.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.08 NEAR	none found
17	f044e90b41ae546…4106c	5.8 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.19 NEAR	none found
18	sessssssssss.near	6.9 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.30 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 12.2 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.5 s of supremegay.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.3 s of syndi95.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
19	920b3a669f9f318…ce387	7.1 min · transaction	18.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.23 NEAR	pair bought within 12.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.2 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	supremegay.near	7.5 min · transaction	59.52 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	+16.37 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 5.9 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.6 s of lorenzo18.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearback.near

None known.